Game Notes (2/27)

The status of Joel Embiid the main focus here.

Embiid will undergo an MRI on his shoulder. Keep an eye on reports out of Philadelphia. Would think he misses at least a game.
According to CTG, Philadelphia -7.4 efficiency differential when neither Simmons or Embiid are on the floor.
The offense drops (103.6) but the defense is what takes the biggest hit (111.0).
Even worse? With both players off and Al Horford on the floor the team’s efficiency differential hit -9.2 (!)

Having said that, New York seems to be in a tough spot.

The Knicks have dropped their last five games, are 1-3-1 ATS in those losses.
Their offense has really taken a hit. In those five games their offensive rating 102.3 and that is against teams like ATL, WSH, CHA among their opponents. All rank 26th or lower in defense.
This all comes hand-in-hand with the trade of Marcus Morris. With him on the floor the Knicks offensive rating jumped by 7.9 p/100 and they seem to miss him greatly.

Injury Report

Knicks: Frank Ntilikina, Groin (Questionable)

76ers: Joel Embiid, Shoulder (Questionable) Ben Simmons, Back (Out) Norvel Pelle, Illness (Questionable)

Portland seems to be in a ‘fade or pass’ type of slide.

Blazers have played three games without Lillard. They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS (NO, DET, BOS) all of which came at home.
Overall, they have failed to cover their last five games, and are 1-4 SU during that slide.
In those losses Portland has a -6.9 net rating. Small sample size, but remember (!) according to CTG with Lillard off the floor the Blazers have a -10.1 efficiency differential. This is what they are without him.
They are also in a poor spot, as they are not a good road team.
On the season they 10-20 SU / 12-17-1 ATS on the road, 5-16 SU / 8-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Indiana could be fools gold though.

The Pacers recovered from an 0-6 SU / 1-5 ATS slide with wins in three of four and a 3-1 ATS record.
However, look at their opponents.
Indiana beat Milwaukee without Giannis, New York and Charlotte. The one loss? A 127-81 bludgeoning by Toronto in which they allowed the Raptors to average 1.245 points per possession (!)
Why is that worrisome?
Well, during their six-game slide the Pacers owned a 114.0 defensive rating and 108.2 offensive rating (-5.8 net). Are their issues fixed, or have they had the benefit of a weak schedule?
Now, Portland is another weak opponent BUT bettors will be paying a tax due to that fact. Is it worth it to lay an inflated number with a mediocre team in Indiana??

Injury Report

Trail Blazers: D. Lillard, Groin (Out)

Pacers: Victor Oladipo, Back (Questionable) Edmond Sumner, Hip (Questionable)

The Kings have found some momentum since the start of this month.

Since a loss to the Lakers on Feb. 1st the Kings are 6-2 SU & ATS with wins over MIA, MEM, and LAC.
Looking at the numbers the biggest difference is their offense. On the season they are averaging just 108.5 p/100 but during this run that figure is 113.5 p/100
Why is their offensive rating up?
Well, five of their opponents during this run rank 18th or lower in defensive efficiency (DAL, MEM, MIN, SAS, GSW).
Miami who they beat on Feb. 7th, is not a good road team AND since Jan. 1st they actually have the 17th best defensive rating (111.7).
Keep in mind that during this eight game run Sacramento’s defensive rating (109.6) is slightly better that their season-long metric (110.5), but not by much at all.

Oklahoma City continues to roll as well.

Thunder are 13-3 SU / 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games. The win/non-cover over Chicago snapped a 3-0 ATS spurt.
Through those 16 games OKC owns the 2nd best offensive rating (117.1) in the NBA. They continue to wreck opponents with that three-guard lineup (+32.7 !!!) and w/ Gallinari on the floor it gets even better (+35.3).
Worth mentioning that the Thunder do own a 109.2 defensive rating through these 16 games, which would put them at 15th if it was their season-long figure.

Injury Report

Kings: Marvin Bagley, Foot (Out) Richuan Holmes, Shoulder (Out)

Thunder: Darius Bazley, Knee (Out)

A rematch from Feb. 8th in which the Lakers won 125-120

Los Angeles led the contest 96-84 heading into the fourth quarter but were outscored 36-29 in the final quarter to make it a 125-120 final score.
The Lakers did whatever they wanted on offense. They shot 52.4% from the floor, 48.3% from deep (14/29) and got to the line 34 times.
Los Angeles also destroyed Golden State on the glass 60-39 and won on the offensive end 12-8

Los Angeles’ defensive performance sticks out…

Golden State averaged 1.133 points per possession (1.037 on the season) while shooting 51.7% from the floor and 40.6% from deep (13/32).
The Warriors even outscored the Lakers in the paint (60-52) and in fast break scoring (26-16)
Just a one off bad day? Maybe not…
Since Jan. 15th the Lakers are 11-5 SU but 8-8 ATS
The team’s net rating is just +3.0 over that span, mainly due to a defense that has suddenly taken a step back.
On the year the Lakers defensive rating is 106.0 which is the 4th best rating in the NBA. However, over these 16 games it is up to 110.0 which…isn’t good.
Now, in the three games since the ASB the team has a defensive rating of 102.5 against the likes of MEM, BOS, NO so the break could have done them some good.

Injury Report

Lakers: None

Warriors: Marquese Chriss, Calf (Questionable) Draymond Green, Hip (Probable)

By JVT