Game Notes (2/28)

Minnesota @ Orlando

Who wants a piece of either of these teams?

Orlando is 4-1 SU / 3-2 ATS in its last five games, but their wins have been against ATL (x2), DET & BRK.
The Magic’s lone loss was a 122-106 blowout loss to Dallas, proving their success has been due to their competition.
What’s even more troubling for Orlando is their defensive play in spite of success.
This five game run has seen the Magic give up 115.8 p/100 against a slate that includes three teams 23rd or worse in offensive efficiency.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has just two wins in their last 20 games.
They have the worst defensive rating through that stretch (116.4) and a -6.5 net rating.
On top of that they’re coming off of an emotional win against Jimmy Butler and the Heat.

Timberwolves Injury Report

Karl Anthony-Towns, Wrist (Out)
Allen Crabbe, Personal (Out)
Jaylen Nowell, Illness (Out)

Magic Injury Report

Jonathan Isaac, Knee (Out)
Al-Farouq Aminu, Knee (Out)

Charlotte @ Toronto

Really big mismatch on paper here.

Yes, Charlotte has a 4-2 SU & ATS record in its last six games, but their wins have come against DET, MIN, CHI and NY.
Their two losses were to BRK & IND with an average margin of defeat of 34.0 points.
Even with the positive record their offensive rating is just 100.2 and they were held to under 90 points (Yes, 90 points) in three of those contests.
We know what Toronto is. They are 17-2 SU / 12-7 ATS dating back to Jan. 15th with a +10.3 net rating.
Raptors have limited opponents during this run to just 105.6 p/100 on defense. Bettors really expect Charlotte to have any success on offense?

Hornets Injury Report

Malik Monk, Suspension (Out)

Raptors Injury Report

Serge Ibaka, Knee (Questionable)
Norman Powell, Finger (Questionable)
Marc Gasol, Hamstring (Extremely Doubtful)

Brooklyn @ Atlanta

Nets Injury Report

None

Hawks Injury Report

Trae Young, Illness (Questionable)
Kevin Huerter, Adductor (Probable)
Dewayne Dedmon, Elbow (Out)
DeAndre Bembry, Abdomen (Out)
Clint Capela, Heel (Out)

Oklahoma City @ Milwaukee

Oklahoma City in a situation in which they thrive.

The Thunder are 5-3 SU but 8-0 ATS this season on the backend of back-to-backs.
On top of that, OKC is 17-10 SU / 21-6 ATS on the road this season, 10-10 SU / 16-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Having said that, there could be something going on with OKC’s defense. Heading into Thursday’s game with SAC the Thunder had a 109.2 defensive rating over the previous 16 games. Against SAC their defensive rating: 112.5
Is this a sign of bigger issues? It’s not a far cry from their season-long metric (108.2) so it could be nothing.

As usual, Milwaukee has the massive edge with their personnel…

Who picks up Giannis?
That assignment likely falls on Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams or Nerlens Noel.
Gallinari on the floor OKC’s defensive rating is a massive 113.2 and he is not the best individual defender. Likely to fall on one of the bigs.
Why that matters, is because OKC’s three guard lineup is most effective when Gallinari is on the floor.
OKC is also not the best defensive team in transition. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency in transition according to CTG (126.3).
Milwaukee starts 19.2% of their possessions with a transition play which is first in the NBA. They rank 10th in points added per possession in transition (3.0) and average 1.207 points per possession in the break (17th).

Thunder Injury Report

Bucks Injury Report

Kyle Korver, Back (Out)

Dallas @ Miami

Heat are in the midst of their worst stretch this season.

In their last nine games they are 2-7 SU & ATS, but seven of those games have come on the road.
As you should know by now Miami is garbage on the road: 13-18 SU / 12-18-1 ATS
However, these struggles bled over at home in their loss to Minnesota on Wednesday.
In these nine games the Heat are allowing 114.1 p/100 on defense, and that has slowly been the case for two months.
Dating back to Jan. 2nd they are 12-13 SU / 11-14 ATS with a 112.1 defensive rating. This seems to have been coming.
However, they’ve played 11 home games during this slide and they are 8-3 SU / 7-4 ATS so the home trend has continued.
On the season: 23-4 SU / 17-9-1 ATS in South Beach

Mavericks Injury Report

Luka Doncic, Thumb (Questionable)
Jalen Brunson, Shoulder (Out)
Willie Cauley-Stein, Personal (Out)

Heat Injury Report

Meyers Leonard, Ankle (Out)
Tyler Herro, Foot (Questionable)

Cleveland @ New Orleans

Cavaliers are 3-1 SU and ATS since the firing of John Beilein, and 4-1 SU & ATS last five overall.

Quick look at their opponents might explain why. They have wins over ATL, WSH, MIA, PHI
The last two might look impressive, but the win over MIA was at home (MIA 13-18 SU /12-18-1 ATS on the road) and PHI was the game in which they lost Embiid.
On top of that, Cleveland barely scraping by. In the four games under Bickerstaff they have +1.2 net rating.
Their offensive rating (111.1) and defensive rating (109.9) are both both extreme turnarounds from their season-long numbers (106.7 & 114.8 respectively) that they cannot be expected to sustain them.

New Orleans has continued to show improvement.

Since Zion Williamson joined the lineup they are 8-6 SU / 7-7 ATS, but 5-2 SU / 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven.
They are second in the NBA in pace in those 14 games (105.25) and their offensive efficiency has been very good (114.2).
Can the Cavaliers keep up with that pace? They rank 21st in pace on the season (99.24).
On top of that, Cleveland ranks 30th in points per possession allowed in transition (1.332) and opponent points added per possession in transition (4.2), according to CTG.
New Orleans ranks 3rd (1.296) and 4th (3.5) in those categories on offense in transition.

Cavaliers Injury Report

Andre Drummond, Calf (Out)
Alfonzo McKinnie, Foot (Out)

Pelicans Injury Report

Kenrich Williams, Back (Questionable)

Sacramento @ Memphis

Injuries have wrecked Memphis

The Grizzlies have dropped three straight, and have failed to cover all three despite catching double digits in each.
Quality of competition has been rough: LAL, LAC, HOU
Through those three games they have a 122.1 defensive rating while averaging just 101.6 p/100 on offense (!).
Just is not a good team without their young core intact. In these three games Memphis has been wrecked in the minutes with Morant on the bench.
On the season with Jackson, Clarke and Morant off the floor the team is -7.0 which is not worth backing clearly.

Sacramento continued its strong push on Thursday night.

Kings are now 7-2 SU & ATS in their last nine games.
They’ve been a solid team in these situations, posting a 4-4 SU / 6-2 ATS record in back-to-backs this season, but obviously its a short sample size.
Sacramento has been a great road team too, going 12-19 SU but 19-12 ATS this year. Even better 15-9 ATS as a road underdog.

Kings Injury Report

De’Aaron Fox, Abdomen (Questionable)
Marvin Bagley, Foot (Out)
Richuan Holmes, Shoulder (Out)

Grizzlies Injury Report

Brandon Clarke, Quad (Out)
Jaren Jackson, Knee (Out)
Justise Winslow, Back (Out)

Detroit @ Phoenix

The Suns have been on a small slide for the last month.

Since Jan. 31st Phoenix is 4-8 SU / 3-9 ATS with a -2.9 net rating.
A lot was being made of the Suns newly discovered starting lineup: Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Bridges, Ayton
Rightfully so, as that unit was +17.6 on the floor together. Issue of course is that Oubre is likely done for the season.
Oubre is having a career season (18.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game) and has been a positive on the floor for Phoenix (+1.8). The one game without him the Suns lost 102-92 to the Clippers.
How do they play without Oubre against a team like Detroit?

Detroit stuck on big losing streak.

Pistons are 0-7 SU since Feb. 7th, but do have a 3-4 ATS record over that stretch.
The offense continues to be a massive issue. Detroit is averaging just 103.1 p/100 during this slide.
They covered against Portland on this four-game west coast trip, but its a Trail Blazers team without Damian Lillard. Blown out by Denver two days later and they averaged just 1.034 points per possession.
Their two main options on offense now: Derrick Rose and Chris Wood.

Pistons Injury Report

Bruce Brown, Knee (Questionable)
Sekou Doumbouya, Calf (Probable)

Suns Injury Report

Kelly Oubre, Knee (Doubtful)
Frank Kaminsky, Knee (Out)

Washington @ Utah

Utah wraps up a brutal homestand tonight.

The Jazz won and covered against Miami right before the break, but are 0-4 SU & ATS in the four games at home since the ASB.
Utah is a team that is clearly overvalued at home by the market. They are 20-9 SU in SLC this season, but 13-15-1 ATS
They are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games at Vivint Smart Home Arena as well!
What’s the issue?
The usually defensive Jazz have been downright bad.
Since Jan. 25th Utah is 5-9 SU / 3-10-1 ATS with a defensive rating of 116.5, 27th best in the NBA over that span.
Simply put, their unbettable at home and bettors are usually laying inflated numbers.

Washington hasn’t been the worst team to back either.

Since Jan. 20th the Wizards are 8-8 SU / 10-6 ATS
As usual, their offense is not the issue. They’ve averaged 112.5 during these 16 games, and on the season they’re 13th in offensive efficiency (111.1).
Wiz play with pace too, ranking 4th on the season (103.67).
They are 7th in points added per play (3.1) and 10th in points per possession (1.241) in transition.
Utah ranks 26th in both categories on defense.

Wizards Injury Report

Garrison Matthews, Ankle (Out)

Jazz Injury Report

None

Denver @ L.A. Clippers

Los Angeles improved to 6-0 SU with a fully healthy roster after the win against Phoenix on Wednesday night.

Clippers have played their last two games with a full team, and the results are staggering: 2-0 SU & ATS with a +18.3 net rating.
Los Angeles owns a 96.4 defensive rating across those two games, and has limited both opponents to less than 100 points.
On top of that, Los Angeles has clearly been a much better home team. They are 23-6 SU / 16-12-1 ATS at home this year with a +8.9 net rating.

Denver has been on a solid run that coincides with health.

Since Jamal Murray returned to the lineup the Nuggets are 6-2 SU / 5-3 ATS with a +8.1 net rating.
However, a lot of that has been due to their offense. Denver has a 118.3 offensive rating over these eight games, but they are allowing 110.3 p/100 to opponents.

This just their second meeting this season.

Denver won the first matchup 114-104, took place at Pepsi Center.
Los Angeles did not have Paul George on the floor for that game, and of course had not acquired Marcus Morris.
Interesting returns with Morris now on the team, but one thing sticks out.
With Morris, Leonard, George and Beverley on the floor together the Clippers are +13.4 net in 64 possessions. Could be a deadly unit that will see more time.

Nuggets Injury Report

Noah Vonleh, Ankle (Questionable)

Clippers Injury Report

None