Game Notes (3/1)

Milwaukee @ Charlotte

The Hornets are in the midst of their best stretch of basketball.

• Charlotte beat Toronto Friday 99-96 to improve to 5-2 SU & ATS in their last seven games.
• This is clearly not sustainable. Over those seven games they actually have -4.8 net rating.
• Their offense has still been atrocious. Charlotte is averaging just 1.007 points per possession during this run and have been held to less than 100 points four times, less than 90 three times!
• How can bettors expect them to stay within that number against the best defense in the NBA when they are barley averaging a point per possession?
• It is a minor lookahead spot for the Bucks who are on the frontend of a back-to-back with a trip to Miami on Monday.

Bucks Injury Report

• Khris Middleton, Neck (Out)
• Kyle Korver, Back (Doubtful)

Hornets Injury Report

• Malik Monk, Suspension (Out)

Philadelphia @ L.A. Clippers

The Clippers continue to roll with their fully healthy roster.

• Los Angeles is now 7-0 SU with a healthy roster. Their last three have been with a full team, and they are 3-0 SU & ATS.
• Numbers are astounding. Last three games they have posted a +21.6 net rating.
• Opponents have averaged 99.3 points per 100 possessions. Denver went into Friday night with an 118.3 offensive rating in their previous eight games. They posted a 102.5 on Friday.
• Not just on defense either. Los Angeles has a 120.9 offensive rating over this three game stretch.
• Yes, it is a small sample size, but with the returns statically there is some weight to what the Clippers have done recently.

Philadelphia won their lone game without Embiid or Simmons.

• Against New York their offense posted a rating of 125.0, mainly due to a spectacular shooting night for the team (15/31 3P).
• Horford, Harris & Milton combined to go 12/15 from deep. The rest of the team went 3/16 (18.7%). Can they get away with that again? Probably not.
• The other issue stemming from that game was their defense.
• NY had gone into that game with a 102.3 offensive rating in their past five, mainly due to the loss of Marcus Morris. Against Philly they posted a 116.5 offensive rating!
• So, you had a seeming unsustainable offensive effort, a poor defensive effort against a bad offensive team.
• Oh, and Philly still stinks on the road. They are 0-7 SU & ATS last seven away, 9-21 SU / 9-20-1 ATS on the season.

76ers Injury Report

• Ben Simmons, Back (Out)
• Joel Embiid, Shoulder (Out)

Clippers Injury Report

• None

Dallas @ Minnesota

Minnesota coming off of another high-scoring affair.

• The Timberwolves have been running and gunning recently.
• Dating back to Feb. 5th Minnesota leads the league in pace (107.44), but rank 28th in defensive efficiency (118.7) and 8th in offensive efficiency (114.6).
• This has equated to a 8-1 run to the over in their last nine games.
• Market has adjusted somewhat, but clearly does not seem to be enough. Six of those games had a total of 233 or higher, three of them 235 or higher.
• If Dallas comes in at full strength what changes?
• Mavericks rank 1st in offensive efficiency this season (116.3), and while they run much slower (99.65) their efficiency against a bad defense could make up for it.
• On top of that, Dallas brings in the 17th ranked defense in the NBA (110.7).

Mavericks Injury Report

• Luka Doncic, Thumb (Questionable)
• Willie Cauley-Stein, Personal (Out)
• Jalen Brunson, Shoulder (Out)

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Karl Anthony-Towns, Wrist (Out)

Detroit @ Sacramento

Sacramento is on a red-hot run.

• The Kings have covered five straight, and are 4-1 SU in those contests.
• They are 7-3 SU / 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, and since Jan. 24th are 10-5 SU / 11-4 ATS
• Their offense has been the biggest difference for them, as they are averaging 112.8 p/100 during this run.
• However, their net rating is just +2.8 due to a defense giving up 110.0 every 100 possessions.
• Do you trust a team barley outscoring its opposition to cover eight points?
• Detroit is showing some fight? They are 2-7 SU / 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.
• Their offense has been getting worse, but far from bottom of the barrel (107.2).
• With no Brown and a questionable Wood it is hard to get behind Detroit as they have been a focal point of their offense.
• According to CTG, with Wood, Brown and Rose on the floor together their offensive rating is 114.4!
• Would need to know official status of Wood to feel better about playing the ‘dog here.

Pistons Injury Report

• Christian Wood, Foot (Questionable)
• Thon Maker, Ankle (Questionable)
• Bruce Brown, Knee (Out)
• Luke Kennard, Knee (Out)

Kings Injury Report

• De’Aaron Fox, Abdomen (Questionable)
• Cory Joseph, Heel (Questionable)

Toronto @ Denver

Two teams coming off of brutal losses…

• Toronto has dropped its last two, and been held to under 100 points in both (MIL, CHA).
• The lack of offense has clearly been the culprit, as Toronto has posted a 104.5 defensive rating over these two games.
• Really, it seems to be the three-point shooting. Across these two contests they have shot a combined 28/95 (29.47%).
• Toronto is a 37.4% 3P shooting team on the season, so one can expect that to correct itself.
• The Raptors also missed VanVleet against Charlotte, and he is massive for their shooting. With him on the floor their 3P% picks up by 2.6%
• As for Denver, they were blown out by the Clippers on Friday, and their poor defensive play finally caught up.
• In the eight games prior to the loss the Nuggets were 6-2 SU / 5-3 ATS due to an offense that was averaging 118.3 p/100
• However, they were allowing 110.0 p/100 to opponents and Los Angeles exploited that. Will that defense continue to struggle against Toronto?
• Denver has also been an overvalued home team this season by the market. They are 23-7 SU at home this year, but just 13-14-3 ATS

Raptors Injury Report

• Fred VanVleet, Shoulder (Questionable)
• Serge Ibaka, Knee (Questionable)
• Marc Gasol, Hamstring (Out)

Nuggets Injury Report

• Paul Millsap, Ankle (Questionable)

L.A. Lakers @ New Orleans

Los Angeles coming off of a perplexing loss to Memphis on Saturday.

• The Lakers were held to a season-low 88 points, four players had double figures in scoring (David, James, Kuzma, KCP).
• Even worse was the defense allowing Memphis to average 1.156 points per possession.
• Los Angeles is 12-6 since Jan. 15th but 9-9 ATS over that stretch with a +3.6 net rating and a 108.5 defensive rating. Something to watch.

This is a rematch from early last week in Los Angeles.

• The Lakers’ defense really shined in the win.
• They held New Orleans to just 0.991 points per possession on the game and 1.118 in transition.
• The Pelicans don’t seem to match up well with the Lakers. They are 0-3 SU / 0-2-1 ATS against them this season with a -7.6 net rating.
• New Orleans bounced back from the loss to beat Cleveland, but failed to cover an inflated number (12.5) against them.

Lakers Injury Report

• Danny Green, Hip (Questionable)

Pelicans Injury Report

• J.J. Redick, Hamstring (Out)
• Kenrich Williams, Back (Doubtful)

Washington @ Golden State

Wizards Injury Report

• None

Warriors Injury Report

• Draymond Green, Knee (Questionable)
• Jordan Poole, Ankle (Questionable)
• Ky Bowman, Ankle (Out)