Game Notes (3/2)

Houston @ New York [Open: HOU -9.5, 230.5]

Houston now has 10 games under the belt with the small-ball lineup…

• The Rockets are 7-2 SU / 5-3-1 ATS in those nine games with +6.7 net rating.
• Their offense pops off the page. They are averaging 115.6 p/100 possessions and 47.4 3PA per game on 36.8% shooting.
• What’s also glaring is the pace and scoring. Maybe a market overreaction to the perception of small-ball?
• Over these nine games the total 6-3 to the under, and Houston’s pace is slightly slower now (101.60) than on the season (103.75).
• Average total during this stretch has been 233.4 with just one game under 230 which was against New York (225).
• Their defense has not been any better, but essentially the same. On the season (109.4) compared to the last nine (108.9).
• There is a glaring issue with this lineup but it has not seemingly burned Houston: rebounding.
• Through these nine games the Rockets have a 68.8 DREB% and a 46.1 REB% which both rank 27th or lower in the NBA.
• New York is 8th in overall rebounding (51.2 REB%). Can they take advantage of this?

New York snapped its six game losing streak with a win Saturday.

• The Knicks just have not been good on defense.
• Over their last seven games their defensive rating is 114.5 which is worse than their season-long rating (112.1).
• New York is one of the worst perimeter defenses in the NBA. Opponents take 36.7% of their attempts from deep and shoot 38.8%
• They really struggle in transition as well.
• According to CTG, the Knicks allow 1.284 points per possession (28th).
• In their meeting on Feb. 24th Houston outscored New York 26-15 in fastbreak points.

Rockets Injury Report

• None

Knickerbockers Injury Report

• Reggie Bullock, Illness (Questionable)

Portland @ Orlando [Open: ORL -7, 223.5]

The Trail Blazers continue to be in a fade-or-pass situation.

• Since Feb. 11th they are 1-6 SU & ATS with a -9.7 net rating.
• Lillard has not been on the floor for the team’s previous five games, and during those contests they are 1-4 SU & ATS.
• Obviously the Blazers have struggled on offense without Lillard.
• In the five games their offensive rating is 108.3 compared to their season-long 111.3 p/100 possessions.
• On top of that, their defense continues to flounder. They have allowed 116.3 p/100 during this slide.

Orlando has suddenly caught fire.

• The Magic are 3-1 SU / 4-0 ATS in their previous four games.
• However, the competition hasn’t been stiff (BRK, ATL, MIN, SAS).
• On top of that, despite the weak competition their defense has not been good. The Magic have allowed 114.0 p/100 to the opposition.
• Orlando’s offense has been spectacular (119.6) but three of their four opponents rank 20th or lower in defensive efficiency.
• Add on that the Magic rank 26th in offensive efficiency (106.5) it is clear this is not sustainable.

Trail Blazers Injury Report

• Anfernee Simons, Ankle (Questionable)
• Damian Lillard, Groin (Out)

Magic Injury Report

• Jonathan Isaac, Knee (Out)
• Al-Farouq Aminu, Knee (Out)

Utah @ Cleveland [Open: UTA -8.5, 219]

The fighting Cavaliers have been a bit exposed, as expected.

• Cleveland had started 3-1 SU & ATS under J.B. Bickerstaff, but had a net rating of just +1.2
• In their last two games they are 0-2 SU / 1-0-1 ATS with a -10.0 net rating.

Utah continues to be an atrocious defensive team.

• The Jazz snapped a four-game losing streak on Friday night, but are still on an 0-5 ATS slide.
• Dating back to Jan. 27th Utah’s defense is the third-worst unit in the NBA, allowing 117.0 p/100 possessions.
• They are clearly overvalued by the market despite the struggles, as they posted a 3-11 ATS record over that 14 game stretch.
• Utah was favored in all of those games, but one (@ HOU).

Jazz Injury Report

• None

Cavaliers Injury Report

• Darius Garland, Groin (Out)
• Tristan Thompson, Knee (Out)
• Alfonzo McKinnie, Foot (Out)

Memphis @ Atlanta [Open: ATL -2.5, 238.5]

• The Grizzlies snapped an 0-5 SU & ATS tumble with a win at home over the Lakers.
• Everything about that win seems like an aberration.
• In the five games prior the Grizzlies had a -14.0 net rating, and a defensive rating of 118.1
• However, in the win over Los Angeles they limited the Lakers to 0.944 points per possession.
• They posted a 104.0 offensive rating during the losing streak, but averaged 1.156 points per possession against Los Angeles.
• As long as Clarke & Jackson are out the Grizzlies should be untouchable, even with that result on Saturday.
• Atlanta has won and covered its last two, is 4-2 SU & ATS in its last six and is emerging as an option at home.
• The Hawks are now 13-18 SU / 19-11-1 ATS when playing at home this season.
• They are showing some improvement, specifically on offense.
• In their last 11 games they have a 116.5 offensive rating with a 6-5 SU / 6-4-1 ATS record.

Grizzlies Injury Report

• Brandon Clarke, Quad (Out)
• Jaren Jackson Jr., Knee (Out)
• Justise Winslow, Back (Out)

Hawks Injury Report

• Cam Reddish, Back (Questionable)
• Dewayne Dedmon, Back (Out)
• DeAndre Bembry, Abdomen (Out)
• Clint Capela, Heel (Out)

Milwaukee @ Miami [Open: MIL -3, 226.5]

Miami heads into Monday in the midst of a lull in their season.

• Yes, they’ve won their last two games (1-1 ATS) but going back to Feb. 5th they are 4-7 SU / 3-8 ATS.
• However, seven of those games came on the road, and six of those losses were away.
• Miami has continued its strong play at home despite the overall struggles.
• Since Jan. 2 they are only 14-13 SU / 12-15 ATS with a 2.1 net rating.
• During that stretch of games they played 13 home games. They were 10-3 SU / 8-5 ATS with a +8.0 net rating.
• On the season they are 25-4 SU / 18-10-1 ATS with a +9.7 net rating
• Can they keep that play at home going against Milwaukee?

The matchup is clearly in Milwaukee’s favor.

• The Heat rank 29th in defense at the rim, allowing opponents to shoot 66.3% within four feet.
• The Bucks take just 35.7% of their attempts at the rim, but they lead the league in shooting percentage within four feet (66.9%)
• Miami’s defense overall really has regressed. Since Feb. 5th they are allowing 114.8 p/100 possessions to opponents.
• What really sticks out is the shooting. Their opponents are shooting 40.2% from deep on 41.6 attempts per game.
• Keep in mind, they are the best perimeter defense in the NBA on the season (34.4).
• As we know, Milwaukee takes 38.8% of attempts from deep and they shoot 36.5% as a team. They should be able to exploit that.
• Offensively, the Heat live from the perimeter. They take 37.3% of their attempts from the arc, and shoot 38.8%
• With the absences of Herro & Leonard that takes two players who shoot 39% and 43% from deep respectively.

Bucks Injury Report

• Khris Middleton, Neck (Questionable)
• Kyle Korver, Back (Out)

Heat Injury Report

• Meyers Leonard, Ankle (Doubtful)
• Tyler Herro, Ankle (Out)

Dallas @ Chicago [Open: DAL -3.5, 224.5]

Mavericks Injury Report

• Luka Doncic, Thumb (Questionable)
• Willie Cauley-Stein, Personal (Questionable)
• Jalen Brunson, Shoulder (Out)

Bulls Injury Report

• Zach LaVine, Quad (Probable)
• Coby White, Back (Probable)
• Luke Kornet, Ankle (Out)
• Chandler Hutchison, Shoulder (Out)
• Kris Dunn, Knee (Out)
• Lauri Markkanen, Hip (Out)

Indiana @ San Antonio [Open: IND -2.5, 220]

Pacers Injury Report

• None

Spurs Injury Report

• Jakob Poeltl, Knee (Out)
• LaMarcus Aldridge, Shoulder (Doubtful)