Game Notes (3/3)

The Hornets are 5-3 SU / 6-2 ATS in their last eight with three straight covers heading into Tuesday night.
Seems unsustainable. They have a 99.1 offensive rating during this run, and have scored fewer than 90 points four times!
In fact, Charlotte has -5.2 net rating over this eight game stretch, but has five wins?
The team has also been playing its best defense of the season, limiting opponents to just 104.3 p/100 in its last eight despite their season-long metric of 112.5 p/100
Meanwhile, San Antonio has hit the skids with a 3-8 SU & ATS stretch of basketball.
It is the usual issues for the Spurs. Opponents are averaging 117.7 p/100 on offense, good for 29th over this stretch.
It’s worth pointing out that six of their opponents during this slide rank within the top 10 of offensive efficiency on the season.
Is San Antonio’s defense bad enough that Charlotte has success on offense?

Spurs Injury Report

Hornets Injury Report

Post All-Star Break has not been kind to Brooklyn, which is 1-5 SU / 2-4 ATS since then.
They have lost four straight to mostly subpar opponents (ORL, WSH, ATL, MIA).
During this slide the Nets’ defense has regressed to allow 112.8 p/100 to opponents.
Remember, heading into the break Brooklyn went 7-3 SU / 8-2 ATS while posting a +9.4 net rating. Their defensive rating then was 106.9
The Nets offense continues to perform well though. They have a 110.2 offensive rating. However, keep in mind three of their opponents rank 24th or worse in defense (CHA, WSH, ATL).
Boston is coming off of the OT loss at home to Houston, the first time they failed to cover a spread since their road game against the Rockets before the break.
The Celtics have been one of the best bets in the league recently, posting an 11-3 SU / 10-3-1 ATS record since Jan. 25th
Their offensive rating during this run is 114.3 but without Tatum on the floor how much will that be altered?
Tatum is the 6th leading scorer in the NBA during this run, averaging 29.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting.
With him off the floor this season Boston’s net rating is just barley negative (-0.2) but its clear how much he is worth.
On the floor, Boston owns a +10.8 net rating!!

Nets Injury Report

Celtics Injury Report

Los Angeles continues to impress when healthy, now 8-0 SU / 6-2 ATS and an average margin of victory of 13.25 points per game.
Their opponents: LAL, SAS, MIA, MIN, MEM, PHX, DEN, PHI
Has the market adjusted to how good this team is with a full roster?
Oklahoma City has failed to cover its last three games, but there is something bigger emerging for the Thunder.
In their last eight games Oklahoma City has a 113.7 defensive rating and they have -0.5 net rating.
Five of their opponents rank within the top 12 in offensive efficiency on the season, and NO has the 8th best offense since Jan. 1st
That explains the inflated number, but also shows great offensive teams give them trouble.
OKC is 2-0 ATS against the Clippers this season, but Kawhi Leonard did not play in either game.

Clippers Injury Report

Thunder Injury Report

The market has clearly adjusted to Minnesota totals with the open of 247.5
Since Jan. 22nd the Over is 11-5 in Timberwolves contests, 8-2 in their previous 10 games.
During this 10 game run Minnesota has the quickest pace in the NBA (105.38) and the 29th ranked defense (117.0).
They’re averaging 110.0 p/100 possessions on offense as well.
New Orleans has been on a 19-11 SU / 19-9-2 ATS run since Dec. 23rd, and during that run they have the third quickest pace in the league (103.98)
The Pelicans are averaging 114.3 p/100 on offense while allowing 110.2 p/100 to opponents. There is no question this should be a track meet.
Since Zion Williamson joined the team the pace has picked up a bit (104.94).

Timberwolves Injury Report

Pelicans Injury Report

Since shipping off Glenn Robinson and Alec Burks to Philadelphia the Warriors have tanked.
They are 1-8 SU / 3-6 ATS with the 29th ranked offense in the league over that stretch (102.9).
Golden State is shooting a brutal 29.7% from deep since losing both shooters.
This is all happening while the Warriors are allowing 114.5 p/100 to opponents (-11.6 net rating)
Denver ripped Toronto last time out, but is just 3-3 SU / 2-4 ATS in its last six games.
Dating back to Jan. 31st the Nuggets have allowed 113.4 p/100 to opponents, but can Golden State take advantage of that?

Warriors Injury Report

Nuggets Injury Report

Raptors Injury Report

Suns Injury Report

Is this offensive surge real in Philadelphia?
In the two games since losing both Embiid & Simmons the 76ers have a 127.6 offensive rating while shooting 48.6% from three-point range.
Doesn’t seem sustainable.
Starters have shot 24/41 in the two games. Among them is Shake Milton who is 12/14 from deep in the two games (16/20 L3).
Philadelphia is also 0-8 SU / 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
Since the start of February the Lakers have evened out on defense, allowing 105.7 p/100 on defense in their last 12 games.
They are 10-2 SU / 8-4 ATS in those contests.
Opponents are shooting 35.8% from deep against Los Angeles during this run. Can Philadelphia keep up the hot shooting?

By JVT