Game Notes (3/7)

The Hornets come into Saturday 5-5 SU / 8-2 ATS in their last ten games. They have covered five straight.
How are they doing this?! Charlotte ranks 30th in offensive efficiency over these 10 games (102.5) with a -4.4 net rating.
Last time out against Denver the Hornets did pop off for 1.196 points per possession, but the Nuggets did go into the game with a 116.6 defensive rating in its previous seven games.
Charlotte’s defense has been much better lately, but it was built up against bad offenses over these 10 games (DET, MIN, CHI, BRK, NYK).
As expected in the Denver game, it got shelled for a 1.253 defensive rating!
So, the offense took advantage of a team playing awful defense, and their own defense which had played above its head finally regressed.
This should be a play against spot, right?
Houston is short-handed, but they can still play their style around Harden.
As we know, the Rockets rank 30th in DREB% & REB% since transitioning to the small-ball lineup.
On the season, Charlotte ranks 29th in DREB% and 26th in REB% so they won’t be able to take advantage of the mismatch on the boards the Rockets usually face.

Rockets Injury Report

Hornets Injury Report

The Jazz are 4-0 SU / 2-2 ATS in their last four games.
Their offense continues to be a force during this win streak (1.195 points per possession).
However, their defense is still garbage.
In those four games Utah is allowing 1.108 points per possession, which would place them at 18th if they allowed for the season.
Going back to Jan. 27th the Jazz are giving up 1.157 points per possession. There still seems to be defensive issues for Utah.
On top of that, look at their opponents: WSH, CLE, NYK & BOS.
The Celtics win is impressive on the surface, but Jaylen Brown & Gordon Hayward both missed the contest.
Having said that, Detroit is so beat to hell they might not be the team to use against the Jazz.
The Pistons have covered three straight and four of five, but they have a -6.5 net rating during this run.
Opponents are averaging 1.164 points per possession, and that’s not a defense I want to back against a Jazz team that beats on lesser competition.

Jazz Injury Report

Pistons Injury Report

The Nuggets are 4-4 SU / 3-5 ATS in their last eight games.
Defense has been the culprit for Denver during this slide. Opponents are averaging 1.171 points per possession in these last eight affairs.
Denver is clearly power rated very highly by the market, and will likely be nearly a double-digit favorite in this spot against Cleveland.
Bettors should not want to lay that kind of a number with team struggling as bad as Denver on defense.
Remember, they dropped a game at home to Golden State this week as a 16-point favorite.

Nuggets Injury Report

Cavaliers Injury Report

Hawks Injury Report

Grizzlies Injury Report

I’ve been wanting to bet against Philadelphia, but have not found the opportunity.
What they’re doing is unsustainable. Especially the shooting. Since Embiid & Simmons have been sidelined they’re shooting 45.7% from deep!
On top of that, they’re allowing 1.211 points per possession!
So, we have the 14th ranked shooting team (36.0%) hitting nearly half of their deep shots, but allowing more points per possession than they’re scoring.
Does that sound sustainable?
Golden State is in an interesting spot considering Curry is now back on the floor for them.
However, in just one game the Warriors still scuffled on offense (1.087 points per possession), and its hard to know what this team is with Curry.

By JVT