Game Notes (3/8)

L.A. Lakers @ L.A. Clippers

• Clippers have won six straight, are 5-1 ATS in those contests with a league-best +16.0 net rating.
• They are 10-0 SU / 8-2 ATS this season when at full strength with an average margin of victory of 13.6 PPG.
• The Lakers are on a 10-1 SU / 8-3 ATS run with wins and covers in each of their last three games.
• Lake Show are back to their ways on defense, limiting opponents to just 1.028 points per possession during this run.
• So, what gives in this closely contested contest?
• The non-LeBron minutes for the Lakers.
• When James leaves the floor the Lakers have a -1.1 net rating. With both James & AD on the bench it is a -2.5 net rating.
• For comparison, the Clippers are just barely positive without Kawhi: +0.4
• They’re still just positive without both Leonard & George: +0.1
• But really, it comes down to how the Lakers defend the emerging ‘Trio of Terror’ for the Clippers.
• When Leonard, George & Morris are on the floor together the Clippers are allowing just 1.007 points per possession and out scoring opponents by 17.5 points every 100 possessions.
• To me, the market has yet to catch up to two things: 1) How much better this Clippers team is at full strength 2) How much better they are than the Lakers.

Lakers Injury Report

• Anthony Davis, Elbow (Probable)
• Dion Waiters, None (Out)

Clippers Injury Report

• None

New Orleans @ Minnesota

• Rematch of Tuesday’s up-and-down affair which ended in a 139-134 regulation win for Minnesota on the road.
• That game closed with a total of 247…what changes today?
• Minnesota still refuses to play any defense. Since Jan. 17th they rank 29th in defensive efficiency (116.9) while playing at the third quickest pace in the league (104.55).
• New Orleans ranks just ahead of the Timberwolves during that same time frame in pace (105.26) and they allow 110.6 points every 100 possessions.
• By the way, it’s a massive revenge spot for the Pelicans who are 4.5 GB Memphis for the 8th seed.
• However, bettors are paying a tax here.
• New Orleans was an 11-point favorite in this game last week, translating to about a 5-point favorite if venues were flipped.
• They’re laying 7 today…

Pelicans Injury Report

• Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Wrist (Out)
• JJ Redick, Hamstring (Out)

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Karl Anthony-Towns, Wrist (Out)
• Kelan Martin, Ankle (Doubtful)

Oklahoma City @ Boston

• Has the market reached the high-point on Oklahoma City?
• In their last 13 games the Thunder are 9-4 SU but 5-8 ATS. They are 4-2 SU / 1-5 ATS in their previous six games.
• What’s really stuck out over these previous 13 contests for the Thunder is their play on defense.
• Since Feb. 5th the Thunder are allowing 1.116 points per possession, and 1.148 points per possession in their last six.
• That’s led to a -3.4 net rating in that six game slide.
• On top of that, Boston has been a bettors best friend for a while now.
• Last 9: 6-2-1 ATS / Last 17: 11-5-1 ATS / Last 21: 14-6-1
• Through this 21 game stretch Boston has the NBA’s third-best net rating (+6.8).
• Numbers aside, seems like a solid matchup in favor of Boston despite absence of Brown.
• One more number though: When Brown is off the floor the Celtics have a +8.5 net rating.
• OKC loves that three-guard lineup of Paul, Schroder & SGA with Gallinari & Adams in the frontcourt.
• Boston can match that with Walker, Smart, Hayward, Tatum & Theis which is a lineup that is +16.5 when on the floor together.

Thunder Injury Report

• Darius Bazley, Knee (Out)

Celtics Injury Report

• Gordon Hayward, Knee (Probable)
• Jaylen Brown, Hamstring (Out)

Miami @ Washington

• Do bettors just continue to fade Miami on the road?
• The Heat are 1-7 SU & ATS in their last eight road games with a -6.6 net rating.
• On the season, they are 13-19 SU / 12-19-1 ATS away with a -3.3 net rating.
• Even more interesting is the matchup with Washington.
• Miami is 2-1 SU against the Wizards, but 0-3 ATS with a -0.9 net rating this season.
• Washington has also been a better home team this season, as most teams.
• They are 15-15 SU / 17-13 ATS at home this year, and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in our nation’s capital.

Heat Injury Report

• Jae Crowder, Concussion (Doubtful)
• Tyler Herro, Ankle (Out)
• Myers Leonard, Ankle (Out)

Wizards Injury Report

• Jerome Robinson, Achilles (Questionable)
• Ish Smith, Hamstring (Out)

Orlando @ Houston

• Houston has dropped its last three games (NYK, LAC, CHA).
• The downside of the small-ball lineup has shown up in these losses.
• The Rockets have been outrebounded in two of the three games, are overall -33 on the boards in these losses.
• They have been outscored by 22 points in the paint as well, are allowing 50.0 PPG in the painted area.
• However, what the glaring issue has been is the shooting. Through these three contests the Rockets are shooting a combined 42/143 (29.4%).
• Since this transition, Houston is averaging 47.5 3PA per game. If the shots are not falling there will be some huge variance from night-to-night.
• Orlando has been on a fantastic tear, going 4-3 SU / 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• Even more eye-opening is this run of overs for the Magic. Dating back to Feb. 3rd the over is 12-1-1 in Orlando games.
• It’s pretty simple: Orlando has sacrificed defense and gone straight to an offensive approach.
• The Magic have allowed 1.155 points per possession over these 14 games while averaging their own 1.142 per possession.
• What’s important is that Orlando ranks 4th during this stretch inn DREB% (75.6) which means they too could pummel Houston on the boards.

Magic Injury Report

• Evan Fournier, Elbow (Out)
• Jonathan Issac, Knee (Out)
• Al-Farouq Aminu, Knee (Out)

Rockets Injury Report

• Eric Gordon, Knee (Doubtful)

Toronto @ Sacramento

• Sacramento in the midst of a really solid run. Since Jan. 24th they are 13-6 SU & ATS.
• The change for the Kings has been their offense. During this 19-game run they are averaging 1.136 points per possession. In the 44 games prior they were averaging 1.070 points per possession.
• What changed?
• Luke Walton decided to place Bogdan Bogdanovich into the starting lineup. Buddy Hield moved to the bench.
• Although this team is far from perfect with the change, as with Bogdanovich and Fox in the backcourt the Kings have a -1.6 net rating.
• Sacramento still isn’t play defense by the way, as they are allowing 1.109 points per possession.
• Toronto is in the midst of a 2-3 SU / 1-4 ATS slide.
• Surprisingly, the Raptors have dropped off on both sides of the ball and have a net rating of -3.2 during the slide.
• However, if you look at their last three games their offensive rating is back up to 1.138 which is showing the ability to take advantage of poor defenses (DEN, PHX, GSW).

Raptors Injury Report

• Fred VanVleet, Shoulder (Questionable)
• Marc Gasol, Hamstring (Questionable)

Kings Injury Report

• Marvin Bagley, Foot (Out)

Chicago @ Brooklyn

Bulls Injury Report

• Ryan Arcidiacono, Achilles (Questionable)
• Zach LaVine, Quad (Questionable)
• Chandler Hutchison, Shoulder (Out)
• Kris Dunn, Knee (Out)
• Max Strus, Knee (Out)
• Luke Kornet, Ankle (Out)

Nets Injury Report

• Garrett Temple, Ankle (Out)

Milwaukee @ Phoenix

Bucks Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo, Knee (Doubtful)
• George Hill, Groin (Questionable)

Suns Injury Report

• Cam Johnson, Illness (Out)
• DeAndre Ayton, Ankle (Out)
• Kelly Oubre, Knee (Out)
• Frank Kaminsky, Knee (Out)

San Antonio @ Cleveland

Spurs Injury Report

• Lonnie Walker, Shin (Questionable)
• LaMarcus Aldridge, Shoulder (Out)
• Marco Belinelli, Illness (Out)
• Jakob Poeltl, Knee (Out)

Cavaliers Injury Report

• Andre Drummond, Calf (Probable)
• Kevin Porter Jr., Concussion (Doubtful)
• Darius Garland, Groin (Doubtful)

Detroit @ New York

Pistons Injury Report

• Derrick Rose, Ankle (Out)

Knicks Injury Report

• Frank Ntilikina, Ankle (Probable)
• Dennis Smith Jr., Concussion (Questionable)