Game Notes (3/10)

Indiana is 8-2 SU / 6-3-1 ATS since an 0-6 SU / 1-5 ATS slide from Feb. 1st – 10th
Their defense has been stellar. Opponents are averaging 1.045 points per possession and 106.1 PPG.
However, let’s dig a bit deeper.
Four of their opponents that they beat during this run (NYK, CHA, CLE, CHI) rank 25th or lower in offensive efficiency.
That explains how great their defense has been.
Their other three were Portland (No Lillard), San Antonio & Dallas.
San Antonio & Portland rank 26th & 27th respectively in defensive efficiency. Dallas ranks 17th.
In fact, five of the opponents that Indiana beat rank 23rd or lower in defensive efficiency, but they’ve managed an offensive rating of just 1.066 which 27th over this 10 game stretch!
Oh, and one of their wins was Milwaukee who did not have Giannis.
In their two losses (TOR & MIL) they were blown out by a total of 65 points while being held to 0.743 & 0.879 points per possession in each.

Celtics Injury Report

Pacers Injury Report

The Knicks are 3-2 SU / 4-1 ATS in their last five games, and dating back to Jan. 18th they are 9-13 SU / 14-7-1 ATS in 22 games.
New York has improved on both ends of the floor.
Their net rating on the season is -6.6 but over this 22 game run its just -2.6
The Knicks are allowing 1.105 points per possession their last 22 games, 1.123 on the season. They are scoring 1.056 points per possession for the year, but 1.079 during this stretch.
Washington has failed to cover three of four (1-3 SU & ATS) but overall have been a decent team for bettors.
Since 2/11: 7-5 ATS
Since 1/20: 13-9 ATS
Washington has been consistently bad on defense (1.137 PPP allowed during 22 games), but they are the better offensive team here (1.121 PPP averaged).

Knicks Injury Report

Wizards Injury Report

Cavaliers Injury Report

Bulls Injury Report

Houston in the midst of an 0-4 SU & ATS slide.
The Rockets have a 1.171 defensive rating over these four games, are allowing 16.5 2nd chance points per game with a 66.7 DREB% and 50.5 points in the paint per game.
For context, the Hornets are last on the season in DREB% at 70.5.
What really sticks out is Houston’s struggles from deep. They are shooting just 29.1% on 43.8 3PA per game.
This small-ball lineup will cause some high-variance results. On nights when they are shooting well they can blow teams out.
On other nights, when they give up size to opponents and shots aren’t falling, they can get wrecked on the boards and in the paint.
Minnesota is allowing 1.164 points per possession in their last 23 games (28th), and an astonishing 55.5 PPG in the paint.
Opponents are shooting 50.9% from the floor, 37.2% from deep while averaging 122.8 PPG during this stretch.
Over these 23 games Minnesota is 4-19 SU / 6-17 ATS.

Timberwolves Injury Report

Rockets Injury Report

Orlando continued its surprising run with a win over Houston on Sunday.
The Magic are 5-3 SU / 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, and all eight games have gone over the total.
Orlando leads the league in offensive efficiency (1.197 PPP), but they also rank 23rd over this stretch in defensive efficiency (1.159 PPP).
Their pace has increased somewhat (101.56) noticeably over this stretch compared to the season-long number (98.65).
Obviously, that is not a sustainable recipe for success.
Memphis comes in on a 4-1 SU & ATS run.
Their opponents have not been strongest. They beat the Lakers, Atlanta (x2) and Brooklyn. The loss was a blowout in Dallas.
The Grizzlies’ defensive rating is insane in these four games (0.956 PPP), but likely unsustainable considering they were giving up 1.189 PPP in a five-game slide prior.
Their offense is respectable (1.121 PPP) and should be able to take advantage of Orlando’s poor defense here.

Magic Injury Report

Grizzlies Injury Report

San Antonio is just untouchable at this point.
In their last 13 games the Spurs are 4-9 SU / 2-11 ATS and they have failed to cover their last seven games.
Through this slide they are allowing opponents to average 119.7 PPG and 1.187 PPP while shooting 50.3% from the floor.
Dallas isn’t close to the best defensive team in the NBA (17th), and they allow 1.110 PPP but obviously not in the realm of the Spurs.
The Mavericks still lead the league in offensive efficiency (1.159 PPP), and even though they’re in the midst a small 1-3 ATS slide they are still averaging 1.123 PPP on offense.
It is the frontend of a B2B which will see the Mavericks in Denver on Wednesday, so possibly a lookahead? I don’t think so.

By JVT