Game Notes (3/11)

Situational game for both sides.
New York is 1-8 SU / 2-6-1 ATS on back-to-backs this season, lost to Washington last night.
Atlanta has been rock solid at home this season going 14-19 SU / 20-12-1 ATS, 6-1 SU / 5-1-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Having said that, Atlanta has not been in the best form. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, allowing 1.182 PPP.
On top of that, the Knicks are a solid rebounding team, ranking 1st in OREB%, 7th in DREB% & 5th in REB% on the season.
Atlanta ranks 16th, 29th and 27th in those categories respectively. Seems like a bad matchup for them.
Knicks are 1-1 SU / 2-0 ATS in their meetings with the Hawks this season with a +7.9 net rating.

Knicks Injury Report

Hawks Injury Report

This matchup hinges no whether or not Embiid will play.
As we know, the 76ers have become a space and shoot team (Not pace!).
In five games without Embiid & Simmons they are shooting 44.3% on 37.0 3PA per game compared to 36.0% on 31.6 3PA per game.
How does that change with Embiid & Richardson back?
Their defense should be better obviously.
During these five games (2-3 SU / 3-2 ATS) they are 30th in defensive rating allowing 1.222 points per possession.
However, clearly their shooting will drop off.
As for Detroit, they’ve dropped four straight, but their most recent loss actually snapped a 4-0 ATS run.
Hard to back them considering that during that run they still posted a -4.8 net rating.
On top of that, who is scoring for this team with the absence of Rose, and injury to Brown?

Pistons Injury Report

76ers Injury Report

Charlotte probably should have covered in their 2/OT loss to Atlanta on Monday night, but still a whopping 9-2-1 ATS (6-6 SU) in their last 12 games.
Still, their defensive rating is slowly getting worse over this span (1.094 PPP) and with a negative net rating (-3.5) it is hard to consider this sustainable.
Miami has the 3rd best net rating at home this season (+9.7) paired with a 27-4 SU / 19-11-1 ATS.
However, the results have been there from a SU result (6-1) but the market has clearly caught up on their power rating (4-3 ATS)
Paired with all of the injury questions it seems hard to back Miami laying double-digits.

Hornets Injury Report

Heat Injury Report

For some reason the market has massive respect for the Jazz despite little to no return on the investment.
Dating back to Jan. 27th they are 9-10 SU / 5-14 ATS with a 1.151 defensive rating (25th).
Thunder have been a bit overvalued at home this season. They are 20-13 SU / 16-16-1 ATS there this season.
Their defensive play has dropped off as well.
In their last 12 games they are allowing 1.114 points per possession and barely skating by with a +1.6 net rating.

Jazz Injury Report

Thunder Injury Report

Nuggets Injury Report

Mavericks Injury Report

With both teams sitting 3.5 GB Memphis for the final playoff spot this becomes a faux playoff game. Intensity on defense, slower pace.
Sacramento fell at home to Toronto on Monday, but is 13-7 SU / 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
The Kings’ offensive turnaround is legitimate. Since benching Buddy Hield and starting Bogdan Bogdanovich 20 games ago they are averaging 1.135 PPP on offense.
This comes with almost no change in their defense either.
On the season they are allowing 1.108 PPP and in this run that figure is 1.113 PPP.
New Orleans has covered its last three games, and has thrived as a road favorite this season (7-1 SU / 6-1-1 ATS).
Having said that, with a slower paced contest, and the market clearly behind on Sacramento this could be a good spot for the Kings.

Pelicans Injury Report

Kings Injury Report

By JVT