Game Notes (7/30)

Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans

• Originally opened a month ago at a few shops as Utah (-1) this line has found it’s proper place.
• The immediate question with Utah is its defense.
• From Jan. 27th – Mar. 9th the Jazz went 9-10 SU / 5-14 ATS while allowing 115.1 points p/100 possessions, good for the 25th ranked defense in the league during that stretch.
• By the way, Bojan Bogdanovich was on the floor for each of those games.
• Why does that matter? With Bogdanovich on the floor this season Utah’s defensive rating improved by 3.8 points per 100 possessions.
• Bogdanovich was third on the team in terms of defensive efficiency differential on the floor among individual players. 
• Rudy Gobert (-6.7) and Joe Ingles (-6.6) were the only other two players ahead of him.
• Even worse, Utah really struggled on defense in one area of the floor all season long: transition.
• Opponents averaged 1.287 points per possession transition against the Jazz, good for 28th in the NBA (There’s only 30 teams).
• Why does that matter?
• New Orleans comes into Orlando ranked 2nd in overall pace (103.96), 12th in percentage of possessions beginning with a transition play and 7th in overall efficiency in the fast break (1.268).
• The minutes in which Rudy Gobert are not on the floor will be massive as well.
• Utah has a -4.5 net differential with Gobert off the floor, with the team posting a defensive rating of 114.2.
• Here’s catch-22 though: With Gobert ON THE FLOOR the Jazz allow a whopping 1.316 points per possession in transition.
• How does Utah solve this problem??

• Not all rainbows & butterflies for New Orleans though.
• The Pelicans downfall this season has clearly been the play of their defense. On the season the team ranks 20th in defensive efficiency (111.6).
• Interestingly though, they rank 10th in opponent shooting at the rim (62.4%), 13th in opponent mid-range shooting (40.0%) and 13th in opponent 3P shooting so what gives?
• Well, New Orleans ranks 15th in defensive rebounding rate and 24th in opponent second chance points per game (13.6).
• What does this mean? A good rebounding team can exploit this weakness.
• Well, Utah comes in ranked 8th in overall rebounding rate (51.2) and 6th in defensive rebounding rate (74.7).
• Oddly enough though, the Jazz rank 24th in offensive rebounding rate (25.8) and 23rd in second chance points per game. Can they take advantage of the Pelicans’ weakness?
• There’s also one more area that Utah can exploit in New Orleans’ defense: the corners.
• The Pelicans’ opponents have shot a blistering 40.3% from the corners this season, 21st in the NBA.
• The Jazz take 11.0% of their attempts from the corner and rank 2nd in shooting from the corner (41.7%).

• Now, there’s clearly an issue with using season-long numbers for New Orleans, to an extent, because they made a massive change to their team in January: Zion Williamson.
• With Williamson in the fold New Orleans went 11-9 SU / 10-9-1 ATS (10-9 with him as he missed a game).
• The team’s real improvement came on the defensive end of the floor. Their defensive rating over those 19 games improved to 109.2 which was the 8th best mark over that stretch of time.
• Opponents’ eFG% drops by 3.1% with Williamson on the floor, and 3P shooting as a whole drops by 5.1%, BUT there is not a massive change in their corner numbers (-0.9%) so that remains a weakness.
• The biggest effect he has is on the offense.
• According to CTG, New Orleans frequency of transition possessions jumps by 2.4% but their efficiency plummets by 10.9 points per 100 possessions!! That’s massive!
• So, a transition team is actually less effective in transition with Williamson on the floor. 

Injury Report

Utah Jazz

• Bojan Bogdanovich, Wrist (Out)

New Orleans Pelicans

• Zion Williamson, Personal (Probable)

Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers

• The line move is pretty easy to explain. Key role players for the Clippers either will not play, or are in question.
• Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams will not be available.
• Patrick Beverley is “probably a maybe” according to Doc Rivers.
• Landry Shamet will be available, but will not be able to play big minutes as he did not participate in the team’s final scrimmage.
• This could lead to the Clippers likely rolling out Jackson, George, Leonard, Morris, Zubac as a starting five.
• That group has been on the floor together for just 14 possessions in the regular season. Results were promising though: +20.0 net differential, but 100.0 offensive rating…allowed just 80.0 p/100!!
• Don’t read into that though. Obviously a short sample size.
• In all seriousness, Reggie Jackson has been a real positive for the Clippers. In 327 possessions with him on the floor the Clippers have a +16.2 net differential. The team’s offensive rating is 121.1 with an astounding FT Rate of 31.3 made FTs over 100 possessions.
• Defensively they’ve posted a 104.9 efficiency rating with Jackson out there.
• Obviously the Clippers will be dipping into the depth of their bench meaning minutes for JaMychal Green, Rodney McGruder, Patrick Patterson, Joakim Noah, Terance Mann, Amir Coffey when Kawhi and PG rest.

• Anthony Davis missed practice on Tuesday with an eye injury, and is day-to-day. Frank Vogel is “hopeful” he will play on Thursday night.
• I lean more toward him playing than not, but in these seeding games it might be worth the risk.
• Regardless, the battle of the benches is going to be fascinating.
• The Lakers’ non-LeBron minutes have been the team’s weakness at times, even with Anthony Davis on the floor.
• According to Cleaning The Glass, the Lakers have posted a -0.9 net differential with Davis on the floorand James off the floor.
• Surprisingly, it is their defensive efficiency that falls off without James. Los Angels has a 113.8 defensive rating in those minutes.
• To this point, the Lakers added two new pieces: J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters.
• Smith has not played a full season since the 2017-2018 campaign, and that season finished 83rd among 91 qualified SG in Defensive Real Plus Minus.
• Waiters played in 44 games in 2018-2019 and finished that season 63rd among 110 at the position in Defensive Real Plus Minus.
• In other words, a bench that has trouble defending without LeBron on the floor added two poor defenders.
• Should Davis either miss the game, or play and sit with LeBron, the Lakers’ bench really struggles. Los Angeles has a -2.5 net differential in those minutes.
• Both sides of the ball fall off, but the notable drop off in these times is offensive efficiency which falls to 108.7 with Davis and James resting.
• Having said that, if AD plays Vogel has been very good at staggering their minutes so at least one of them is on the floor a majority of the time.
• Only 551 possessions this season without AD & LBJ.

Injury Report

Los Angeles Clippers

• Montrezl Harrell, Personal (Out)
• Lou Williams, Personal (Out)
• Patrick Beverley, Personal (Questionable)
• Landry Shamet, Personal (Available)

Los Angeles Lakers

• Anthony Davis, Eye (Questionable, DTD)
• Rajon Rondo, Hand (Out)