Game Notes (7/31)

Orlando @ Brooklyn

Injury Report

Orlando Magic

• Aaron Gordon, Groin (Expected To Play)
• Wesley Iwundu, Concussion (Questionable)

Brooklyn Nets

• Lol

Memphis @ Portland

• First matchup that comes to mind is Memphis’ defense against Portland’s offense.
• The Grizzlies’ defensive philosophies reflect those of Milwaukee: Cut off the rim, allow opponents to take perimeter shots.
• Memphis ranks 14th in opponent frequency of attempts at the rim, 7th in opponents shooting at the rim (61.4%)
• This is intriguing because Portland plays into that style. The Trail Blazers rank 26th in frequency of shot attempts at the rim (32.9%) and 29th in shooting within four feet (60.3%).
• TLDR: The Grizzlies don’t allow you to take shots at the rim, the Blazers don’t take shots at the rim.
• Now, there is the addition of of Nurkic, so how does that change Portland’s offense?
• Well in the 2018-2019 season with Nurkic on the floor the Trail Blazers’ frequency of attempts at the rim did jump 4.9% but they still only shot 60.8%
• In other words, they still sucked within four feet of the hoop last year, shooting 60.3% in that area of the floor. 
• So, while Nurkic is a positive addition he does not help with Portland’s struggles at the rim.

• The other fascinating aspect of Memphis’ defense against Portland’s offense is the play in the mid-range area of the floor.
• Portland loves the mid-range shot. They rank 11th in frequency of attempts of from that area (32.3%), 6th in terms of accuracy (43.0%).
• Their personnel love that area. Carmelo Anthony (48% mid-range frequency), CJ McCollum (43% mid-range frequency), Anfernee Simons (34% mid-range frequency).
• Interesting part here is that Memphis ranks 9th in the league in opponent mid-range shooting (39.3%).

• The real unknown is how Portland’s defense will look now that Nurkic is on the floor.
• To go back one last time to the Blazers’ 2018-2019 numbers: With Nurkic on the floor last season they Blazers’ defensive rating was 107.8
• However, that Blazers team also had better perimeter defenders like Mo Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu. Nurkic will likely make them better, but by how much when this year’s team is so bad along the perimeter?
• Opponents take 37.1% of their attempts at the rim against Portland (23rd), but shoot just 59.1% which is the 2nd best rate in the NBA.
• However, Portland is allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% on all 3P attempts (28th), 37.9% on non-corner 3P attempts (30th) and 39.4% on corner 3P attempts (19th).
• In other words, opponents are blowing by perimeter defenders and finding open shooters.
• Trick is Memphis is not a good 3P shooting team.
• Grizzlies rank 26th in 3P frequency (31.6%) and 22nd in overall shooting from deep (35.6%).
• Can Memphis take advantage of that poor perimeter defense?

Phoenix @ Washington

Injury Report

Phoenix Suns

• Dario Saric, Ankle (Questionable)
• Aron Baynes, COVID-19 (Doubtful)
• Kelly Oubre, Knee (Out)

Washington Wizards

• Bradley Beal, Shoulder (Out)
• Davis Bertans, Personal (Out)
• Garrison Matthews, Personal (Out)

Boston @ Milwaukee

• How much of a loss is Eric Bledsoe? Long term, big. One game? Not so much.
• On the offensive end of the floor Bledsoe’s net differential is just +0.9 so he doesn’t contribute much on the offensive end of the floor.
• Take Giannis off the floor and his net differential dips to -0.9 so while his defense is valuable statistically if his minutes are going elsewhere for one game it won’t be huge.​
• Keep in mind that Milwaukee has insane depth.
• Take Giannis and Bledsoe off the floor and Milwaukee’s net differential is +7.3 so even when Giannis sits his absence shouldn’t be felt.​​
• This depth is a reason why Boston could be up against it.​
• The Celtics rank 29th in bench scoring this season at 27.2 PPG, and even worse it seems Kemba Walker will be on a minutes restriction.​
• When you start to look at some of these lineups for Boston when key guys rest the lack of depth really starts to show. Especially when Jayson Tatum is involved.​
• Tatum/Hayward off the floor: -4.8 net rating​
• Brown/Tatum off the floor: -0.8 net rating​
• Smart/Tatum off the floor: -5.1 net rating​
• So clearly the non-Tatum minutes are going to be huge for Boston tonight.​​
• Then you get to the offense for Boston, and there are a couple of matchup issues.​
• The Celtics rank 23rd in rim shooting (61.7%) and 16th in terms of rim frequency (35.3%). Milwaukee ranks 1st defensively in both categories.​
• They can keep themselves alive due to a few strengths though​
• One, Boston does rank 12th in 3P shooting (36.8%) so they could use the perimeter (Milwaukee 19th in opponent 3P%: 36.7%).​
• Two, Boston is the best transition defense in the league, allowing 113.2 p/100 in the fast break to opponents. ​Milwaukee begins 19.1% of possessions with a transition play, rank 1st in pace, but 17th in efficiency.​

Injury Report

Milwaukee Bucks

• Eric Bledsoe, COVID-19 (Out)
• Pat Connaughton, COVID-19 (Out)
• Marvin Williams, Groin (Doubtful)
• Frank Mason, Back (Probable)
• Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Concussion (DTD)

Boston Celtics

• Kemba Walker, Knee (Available, Minutes Restriction)

Sacramento @ San Antonio

Injury Report

Sacramento Kings

• Alex Len, COVID-19 (Out)
• Marvin Bagley, Foot (Out)

San Antonio Spurs

• Bryn Forbes, Quad (Out)
• LaMarcus Aldridge, Shoulder (Out)
• Trey Lyles, Appendicitis (Out)

Houston @ Dallas

• This line flipped from Houston (-1) to Dallas (-1) in the span of 36 hours. Why?
• The move seems to coincide with the loss of Eric Gordon to injury. Sitting at PK on July 28th,  Gordon suffers injury the same day, Dallas is (-1) at the Westgate by 7:46 a.m. the next day.
• Is Gordon worth a point to the line?
• According to Cleaning The Glass, Gordon posted a -5.6 net differential this season. Meaning Houston was being outscored by 5.6 points every 100 possessions with him out there.
• While the team’s accuracy at the rim jumped by 2.1% their 3P shooting dropped by 2.2% when he was on the floor.
• This season Gordon had posted the worst 3P% of his career outside of the two seasons from 2011-2013 in which he suffered through multiple injuries that caused him to play a total of 51 games.
• In my opinion, this season Gordon is not worth a point move on the line.

• Now, Houston’s offense against Dallas’ defense.
• The Rockets finished the regular season 2nd in overall offensive rating (113.4), Dallas finished 17th in defensive rating (110.0).
• Statistically the area of the floor Dallas really struggled in on defense was the mid-range. 
• They were 20th opponent shooting in the mid-range overall (40.6%), 16th in long mid-range shooting (41.0%), 21st in short mid-range shooting (40.4%).
• Obviously, this isn’t going to be much of an issue against Houston who ranked 30th in EVERY mid-range shooting statistic in terms of frequency.
• This is where it pays to dig a bit deeper.
• Dallas struggled in another area defensively: halfcourt efficiency.
• The Mavericks ranked 16th in defensive halfcourt efficiency, allowing 95.1 points per 100 possessions.
• Houston finished 5th in offensive halfcourt efficiency (98.4).
• This is obviously due to the Rockets style, especially the isolation-heavy offense with Harden on the floor.
• In terms of DRPM the Mavericks have some guys who struglle individually: Luka Doncic (87th of 134 SG), Delon Wright (64th of 92 PG).

Injury Report

Houston Rockets

• Eric Gordon, Ankle (Out)

Dallas Mavericks

• Jalen Brunson, Shoulder (OFY)
• Willie Cauley-Stein, Personal (Not Participating)
• Courtney Lee, Calf (OFY)