Toronto @ Miami
- This a tough game to evaluate on multiple levels.
- One, how do you read into a performance from Miami on Saturday that was against such a short-handed Denver team?
- Two, what the hell is going on with Jimmy Butler?
- It was reported Sunday that Butler missed practice with an “excused absence”, but Jae Crowder made comments suggesting he was out due to quarantine.
- Butler obviously very important to Miami. With him on the floor this season Miami has a +5.6 net rating. Off the floor it is +1.1, still positive but obviously just barely.
- The Heat did take both regular season game against Toronto, posting a +8.1 net rating and allowing the Raptors just 0.939 per possession on offense.
- Toronto did seem like the extra time in Orlando was beneficial in their lone seeding game, a defensive mastery of the Lakers on Saturday.
- The Raptors held the Lakers to just 0.861 points per possession, allowed them to shoot just 57.7% at the rim, gave up just 0.719 per halfcourt possession and 1.071 in transition.
- Toronto had its struggles offensively, but took advantage along the perimeter going 14/34 (41.2%) from deep against Los Angeles.
Injury Report
Toronto Raptors
- None
Miami Heat
- Jimmy Butler, Quarantine (Questionable)
- Bam Adebayo, Quad (Probable)
- Goran Dragic, Back (Probable)
Indiana @ Washington
Injury Report
Indiana Pacers
- Malcolm Brogdon, Neck (Questionable)
- Goga Bitadze, Knee (Out)
Washington Wizards
- None
Denver @ Oklahoma City
- If Jamal Murray misses this contest the Nuggets are in for another tough day it seems.
- This season when Murray, Barton and Harris are all off the floor Denver has a -8.0 net rating.
- Their offense suffers. In those minutes the Nuggets average just 1.033 per possession, shoot 31.8% on mid-range shots.
- Against Miami, those offensive issues came to light again without that trio.
- The Nuggets averaged just 1.066 per possession on offense. A slow paced, halfcourt team posted an 84.4 offensive rating in the halfcourt.
- Defensively, without that trio this season Denver’s defensive rating was 111.3 and on Saturday Miami took advantage, averaging 1.289 per possession.
- Have to think this is the time to stay away from an undervalued Thunder team due what is likely going to be an inflated line due to Nuggets injuries.
- Having said that, this team provided once again.
- OKC pieced up Utah, averaging 1.157 per possession, shooting 40.0% from deep while averaging 1.000 per possession in the halfcourt and 1.500 in transition.
- Utah did find success when it got out and ran, matching the 1.500 efficiency in transition that Oklahoma City posted.
- However, Denver is one of the worst transition teams in the NBA, and got worse on Saturday with few ball-handlers to push the tempo.
Injury Report
Denver Nuggets
- Jamal Murray, Hamstring (Questionable)
- Will Barton, Knee (Out)
- Gary Harris, Hip (Out)
Oklahoma City Thunder
- None
Memphis @ New Orleans [Open: NO -3.5, 239]
- Through two games in Orlando it is very clear the Grizzlies are having trouble with perimeter defense.
- San Antonio & Portland combined to shoot 42.3% (25/59) from deep in the Grizzlies’ two losses.
- New Orleans takes 38.1% of its attempts from deep this season, and is one of the best 3P shooting teams in the league (38.1%).
- However, that has to show itself in Orlando. In two seeding games the Pelicans are shooting just 32.8% from 3P range. Have to think is going even out at some point.
- Keep in mind, this is an issue New Orleans has exploited against Memphis in two regular season meetings.
- Pelicans shot an insane 43.9% (36/82) in their two regular season wins against the Grizzlies.
- Is this issue going to continue for Memphis today?
- Should be worth noting, Memphis was not terrible in all areas against San Antonio though.
- The Grizzlies allowed the Spurs to average just 1.038 points per possession overall, 0.903 per possession in the halfcourt.
- Memphis also continues to thrive in transition. They averaged 1.538 per possession the fastbreak against San Antonio, 1.500 per possession against Portland.
- For New Orleans, there has not been a common thread on defense, like Memphis’ along the perimeter, to follow.
- Against Utah their struggles at the rim killed them. The Jazz got free runs to the hoop regularly, shot 75% within four feet.
- Against Los Angeles the Clippers decimated them from deep, taking 49% of their attempts from 3P range and shooting 56.8% in non-garbage time minutes.
- I alluded to their shooting struggles earlier in this capsule, and that has been the small part of a larger issue for the Pelicans in New Orleans: offensive struggles.
- The Pelicans’ offensive rating through two games in Orlando is just 101.0
- Specifically, outside of the shooting, they’ve been terrible in the halfcourt.
- Against Utah: 0.731 per halfcourt possession
- Against Los Angeles: 0.500 per halfcourt possession
- Luckily, they get a Memphis team that finished the season 24th in that category on defense this season
Injury Report
Memphis Grizzlies
- Tyus Jones, Knee (Out)
New Orleans Pelicans
- None
San Antonio @ Philadelphia [Open: PHI -7, 229]
- Troubling that “road Philly” showed up in Orlando on Saturday.
- An Indiana team with no Malcolm Brogdon averaged 1.233 per possession, shot 50.0% on mid-range shots, 42.4% from deep and averaged 1.072 in halfcourt possessions.
- Indiana did not run much, but when they did it was extremely effective (1.455).
- As we know, Philadelphia was a terrible road team this season, namely on defense where they allowed 1.123 per possession away from home.
- Saturday, with a defensive rating of 1.233, that seemed too familiar to inspire confidence in laying a number like this.
- Meanwhile, the Spurs have looked great getting off to their 2-0 SU / ATS start, but they get the benefit of contests against Sacramento & Memphis.
- Both teams ranked 15th and 19th in defensive efficiency heading into Orlando, and San Antonio comes out of those two affairs with a 111.8 offensive rating.
- As bad as Philly was Saturday, this is a different beast.
Injury Report
San Antonio Spurs
- Marco Belinelli, Ankle (DTD)
- Bryn Forbes, Quad (DTD)
Philadelphia 76ers
- Mike Scott, Knee (Out)
- Glenn Robinson III, Hip (Doubtful)
L.A. Lakers @ Utah [Open: LAL -6, 219]
- Is the Los Angeles offense going to finally break out on Monday?
- Through two games, against two of the best defensive teams in the league, the Lakers are averaging a measly 94.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s dead-last in bubble!
- Los Angeles is shooting 27.6% from 3P range, 37.25 from the field overall!
- It’s been even worse in the halfcourt, where they posted efficiency marks of 83.7 and 71.9 in their two games this past weekend.
- Now, again, this is against two of the best defenses the league has to offer. What about against Utah?
- Through their two seeding games the Jazz have posted a 108.1 defensive rating. However, take away New Orleans’ crap Thursday performance and that rating is 115.7!!
- Furthermore, Utah has greatly struggled in both seeding games to defend in transition, a sstruggle they’ve had all season long.
- Oklahoma City averaged 1.500 per possession in the fastbreak, New Orleans posted a 1.353 in that category.
- Los Angeles loves getting out and running. They rank 5th in terms of fastbreak frequency (16.3%) and 2nd in efficiency (1.298).
- Seems like an offensive outbreak is in the cards tonight.
Injury Report
Los Angeles Lakers
- Rajon Rondo, Hand (Out)
Utah Jazz
- Royce O’Neale, Foot (Probable)
Hardwood Handicappers 