Game Notes (8/5)

Memphis @ Utah [Open: UTA -4, 225.5]

• Memphis still has a small issue guarding the perimeter, but their defense has evened out over the last two games.
• After giving up 1.221 per possession to Portland their defense settled down, posted defensive ratings of 1.038 to San Antonio, 1.048 to New Orleans.
• Opponents are still shooting 40.9% from beyond the arc, which could factor into the equation today.
• Their rim protection has remained strong. Memphis allowed Portland to only shoot 62.9% at the rim in their opener, neither of the other two opponents shot over 60% within four feet.
• Fascinating matchup because Utah comes in really struggling on offense, finding success in one area of the floor: the rim.
• The Jazz have posted a 101.3 offensive rating in their three bubble games, but have shot over 72.2% at the rim in two of their games (NOP, LAL)
• Most concerning for Utah has been the perimeter shooting.
• They finished the regular season as the 2nd best 3P shooting team in the league (38.4%), but have hit just 25.9% from deep in three games.
• Bojan Bogdanovich, a 41% 3P shooter, missing the restart was going to hurt their team’s shooting, but this much?
• Now the Jazz get to match up with a Memphis team that has struggled to defend the perimeter. Does a good shooting team break out of its slump against a poor perimeter team today?

• Like Utah though, Memphis’ struggles on offense have been consistent.
• The Grizzlies have been held to just 105.3 points per 100 possessions, generating no offense in the halfcourt in their three seeding games.
• Memphis has posted halfcourt efficiency marks of 93.1, 90.5 and 88.2 in their three losses in Orlando.
• Utah finished the season ranked 6th in halfcourt defensive efficiency (92.7) and that has carried over to the bubble where they allowed just 0.731 per halfcourt possession to New Orleans and 0.740 to the Lakers.
• Overall, the Jazz have been just fine defensively.
• Their 109.6 defensive rating is just 0.8 points higher than their regular season mark, and opponents are shooting 36.1% from deep against them.
• Two marks that are below average, but won’t kill an average team.
• However, just as their strength in the halfcourt has carried over from the regular season, their issues in defensive transition have as well.
• Their three opponents in Orlando (NO, OKC, LAL) have averaged 1.353, 1.500 and 1.500 points per possession in transition. All terrible marks.
• There is an argument to made that the Pelicans and Lakers are two of the best transition teams in the league, but seeing as Utah ranked 28th in transition defense this season it is no anomaly.
• Memphis’ offense only found success in transition early in their bubble games, averaging 1.500 and 1.538 points per possession against Portland and San Antonio.
• The Grizzlies finished the regular season 14th in fastbreak efficiency, but they do start 17.1% of their possessions with a transition play which is third-most in the legue.
• Can they exploit one of Utah’s major weaknesses? Is that enough to be able to stay within this number?

• Then there is the loss of Jaren Jackson for Memphis.
• A team that is having issues on offense is going to be without one of their top scorers. He averaged 17.4 PPG while shooting 39.4% from deep.
• Memphis has shot just 28.1% from 3P range in Orlando. Jackson is shooting a lower percentage (35.7) than his regular season average but still was one of the more consistent options from deep for a struggling team.
• Worth noting that, while this is a loss, it gives Memphis more opportunities to put Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke together.
• This season with that duo on the floor, and Jackson off, Memphis posted +1.4 net rating.

Injury Report

Memphis Grizzlies

• Jaren Jackson Jr., Knee (Out)
• Tyus Jones, Knee (Out)

Utah Jazz

• None

Philadelphia @ Washington [Open: PHI -10.5, 233]

• Philadelphia is really intriguing when viewing it from the perspective of the betting market.
• They close as six-point favorites against Indiana, and fail to cover in an outright loss. Against San Antonio they are bet up to 7.5-points favorites, need a late 3P from Shake Milton just to win.
• Now, against a lowly Washington team they open as double-digit favorite and the line has not budged.
• The problem for the 76ers has been their non-exsistent defense.
• In only two seeding games Philadelphia is giving up 1.230 points per possession.
• Opponents are shooting 50.0% from the floor, 43.3% from 3P range.
• Each of their opponents, Indiana and San Antonio, have averaged well over a point per possession in the halfcourt (1.072 and 1.021 respectively).
• What’s been even more shocking is how bad they’ve been in transition, allowing their two opponents at least 1.455 points per possession in the fastbreak.
• Why are they so poor defensively all of the sudden?
• We know that adding Shake Milton to the lineup would make them worse defensively, but not to this level.
• Besides, this is clearly a team issue, not just an instance where this specific lineup is having trouble.
• Luckily, they get one of the most inefficient offenses in the bubble Wednesday in Washington.
• The Wizards are averaging just 104.5 points every 100 possessions in three bubble games, and an ineffieicnt 88.7 points every 100 halfcourt possessions.

Injury Report

Philadelphia 76ers

• Mike Scott, Knee (Out)
• Glenn Robinson III, Hip (Doubtful)

Washington Wizards

• None

Denver @ San Antonio [Open: DEN -3.5, 224.5]

• San Antonio has been the surprise of the bubble, picking apart three bad defenses (SAC, MEM, PHI) on the way to a 2-1 SU / ATS start with a 116.1 offensive rating.
• The Spurs have not really shied away from playing their brand of basketball.
• In all three games they’ve taken well over 40% of their shots from mid-range, shooting an average of 47.2% from that area.
• They’ve been insanely efficiency shooting the ball from deep (43.8%) while averaging just 26.7 3PA per game.
• San Antonio has also thrived in both halfcourt, and the fastbreak. In short, a top 10 offense has come in and performed like a top 10 offense.
• Can they exploit another team trying to shake the rust off defensively in Denver?
• The Nuggets have played just twice in Orlando, allowing 114.4 points per 100 possessions.
• Now, much of this number is inflated due to their massive loss to Miami where they allowed 1.289 points per possession.
• They beat Oklahoma City on Monday allowing only 1.066 points per possession, but the Thunder were without a third of their dynamic three-guard lineup, Dennis Schroder.
• Regardless, a positive sign for their defense.
• A defense which allowed just 108.8 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, so we know it can be better.
• However, it is hard to do so when you’re missing the pieces Denver is.
• With the trio of Murray, Barton and Harris off the floor the Nuggets have a -6.4 net rating, and have a 110.8 defensive rating this season.

Injury Report

Denver Nuggets

• Jamal Murray, Hamstring (Questionable)
• Will Barton, Knee (Out)
• Gary Harris, Hip (Out)

San Antonio Spurs

• Marco Belinelli, Ankle (Probable)
• Bryn Forbes, Quad (Out)

Oklahoma City @ L.A. Lakers

• Hard game to handicap for multiple reasons.
• First, Los Angeles has nothing to play for in this contest. Their win over Utah clinched them the top seed in the Western Conference.
• Will bettors see a situation like Milwaukee on Tuesday in which Giannis Antetokounmpo started but played only 16 minutes and sat the second half?
• There have been no rumblings out of the Laker camp to suggest this would happen today, but with just five games left and nothing at stake this going to be something bettors will have to take into account for each Laker seeding game from now on.
• Second, Oklahoma City is missing a major piece in Dennis Schroder who is now out of the bubble for the birth of his child.
• Not only is Schroder a major piece of their famous three-guard lineup, but in minutes with him off the floor this season the Thunder have a -2.1 net rating.
• As of this writing there is no line up, and personally there are too many other factors at play to find a real thread to focus the handicap on.

Injury Report

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Dennis Schroder, Personal (Out)
• Terrance Ferguson, Leg (Out)
• Mike Muscala, Concussion (Doubtful)

Los Angeles Lakers

• Rajon Rondo, Hand (Out)

Toronto @ Orlando

• Toronto has plenty of motivation to keep playing hard, as a win and Boston loss can clinch the second seed tonight.
• Toronto has also been arguably the best team in the bubble since it started, having been there for nearly a month now.
• The Raptors lead the bubble in defensive efficiency (96.1), but their offense has struggled to find overall consistency (105.4).
• The only part of their offense that really has been humming along is their shooting. Through two bubble games the Raptors are shooting just 42.4% from the floor, but 45.5 from 3P range!
• Surprisingly, Toronto has struggled to find their footing in transition early. Against the Lakers they averaged a pathetic 0.615 per possession in the fastbreak, 1.231 against Miami.
• They will likely find it against Orlando, a somewhat fraudulent team when you look over their numbers.
• The Magic have been spectacular on offense, posting a 120.6 offensive rating in their three seeding games.
• Here’s the issue: two of their opponents, Sacramento and Brooklyn are two of the worse defensive teams in the bubble.
• On Monday, the Magic ran into a quality Indiana team and were smacked with a 120-109 loss.
• They allowed 1.250 points per possession to the Pacers, and their defensive rating in bubble is 115.3 which is troubling.
• So, we have an Orlando team which built up its offensive rating against poor defensive teams, that is struggling on defense and now is without one of its primary role players.

Injury Report

Toronto Raptors

• None

Orlando Magic

• Michael Carter-Williams, Foot (Questionable)
• Jonathan Isaac, Knee (Out)

Brooklyn @ Boston

• Seems like Brooklyn will be at “full strength” with some of their regulars reportedly back in action, but this is more about Boston’s defense in the bubble.
• Through three games the Celtics are allowing 117.9 points every 100 possessions.
• It is an issue with a majority
• What’s been apparent is their struggles with turnovers. Not only is their turnover rate sitting at 15.5% (Which would put them at 27th if this was over the course of a season), they’re also allowing opponents to average 21.7 points off turnovers in the bubble!
• To give you an idea how bad that is, the Cavaliers finished the regular season 30th in opponent points off turnovers per game at 20.0!
• The Boston offense is also in an interesting spot. If you look at the three games as a whole you’ll see an offensive rating of 116.5 in three bubble games.
• However, a lot of that is inflated from the Portland game in which they averaged 1.333 points per possession.
• Against Milwaukee their offensive rating was just 106.7 and their loss to Miami last night was 1.084.
• In their three games in Orlando they’re shooting 39.0% from 3P range, but in those Milwaukee and Miami games their shooting from deep was just 29%.
• Now, Kemba Walker, who was shooting 60% from deep in Orlando, is going to miss this game. What does that do for their inconsistent offense?

Injury Report

Brooklyn Nets

• Jamal Crawford, Hamstring (Questionable)
• Joe Harris, Back (Probable)
• Caris LeVert, Thigh (Probable)
• Jarrett Allen, Rest (Probable)

Boston Celtics

• Kemba Walker, Knee (Out)