New Orleans @ Sacramento [Open: NO -4, 234.5]
- Does New Orleans’ offense finally wake up?
- Through three seeding games New Orleans is 21st in the bubble in offensive rating (102.3).
- Their offense is struggling in multiple ways, most notably from deep. As a team they’re shooting 34.4% 3P in Orlando.
- This is a team that finished the regular season as the 4th best 3P shooting team (37.8%). Positive regression has to be expected.
- Their offensive struggles have been apparent in halfcourt situations as well, where they’ve posted offensive ratings of 73.1, 74.3 and 84.8 in the three contests they’ve played.
- New Orleans’ win on Monday was a good sign, but they still only posted an offensive rating of 104.8
- Where the Pelicans really found success was in transition, a spot they’ve thrived all season long.
- They outscored the Grizzlies 23-7 in fastbreak points, averaged 1.846 per possession in transition.
- The offense could start to find its footing against a Kings team that is 21st in the bubble in defensive efficiency (117.9).
- Sacramento is getting killed in a few areas, but what has been really glaring is their struggles rebounding. The Kings have a DREB% of 70.9 and an overall REB% of 48.6 which would place them in the range of 25-30 over an entire season.
- As a result, opponents are averaging 14.3 2ndCPts per game which again would be a bottom 20 metric over a full season.
- Sacramento did turn in their best defensive effort against Dallas the other day, allowing just 1.075 per possession, 53.1% at the rim and 22.0% on 3P shots.
- However, it is hard to ignore the statistics from the previous two games. Orlando and San Antonio posted efficiency ratings of 157.1 and 153.3 in transition, 131.0 and 103.2 in the halfcourt.
- Both awful numbers for a defense if you were wondering.
- Even more disappointing for Sacramento has been an offense that is averaging 107.8 points per 100 possessions. That rating is 15th best in the Orlando bubble.
- The Kings have been held under a 91.7 offensive rating in the halfcourt in each one of their games.
- They weren’t a top 10 3P shooting team in the regular season, but still shot 36.7% (14th). Through three games in Orlando they are shooting 33.0%
- What is even more troublesome about the Kings’ offensive struggles is the fact that the average defensive rating of their three bubble opponents is 114.9 … they’re not playing good defenses!
- New Orleans enters today with the 5th best defensive rating in Orlando (106.1), but I wonder how much of that rating is their opponents.
- Outside of the Clippers (111.4) the Pelicans have faced Memphis (106.6) and Utah (105.4) two teams who rate near the bottom of the bubble’s offensive rating standings.
Injury Report
New Orleans Pelicans
- None
Sacramento Kings
- Marvin Bagley, Foot (Out)
Miami @ Milwaukee [Open: MIL -9, 221.5]
- Hard to get a read on this game due to the lack of availability for certain stars. There are some things we can look at though.
- We know that the Miami Heat have a +1.5 net rating with Jimmy Butler off the floor. If we take him and Dragic off of the floor (Should Dragic not play) that net rating drops to -2.6
- Having said that, Miami has looked fantastic in the bubble even with Butler out of the lineup. The Heat have a +6.4 net rating in Orlando, one of the better net ratings of the 22 teams.
- Their offensive rating (114.9) could be somewhat fraudulent considering two of their opponents, Denver (117.8) and Boston (114.9), both rank in the bottom half of the bubble AND were missing key players when they met the Heat.
- As for Milwaukee, keep in mind that they have yet to clinch the top seed in the East. They need just one win to do so, but with Toronto playing the way they are do the Bucks prioritize winning today?
- No reports on whether Giannis Antetokounnmpo and others will be rested again today.
- These teams did meet twice, once in October and the latest in March.
- Miami won both, posting a +9.5 net rating in the series. Butler missed the first, Giannis did play in both contests
Injury Report
Miami Heat
- Jimmy Butler, Ankle (Out)
- Goran Dragic, Ankle (Questionable)
Milwaukee Bucks
- Wesley Matthews, Calf (Questionable)
Indiana @ Phoenix [Open: IND -3, 228.5]
- Am I wrong to have some trepidation with Phoenix?
- The Suns numbers are fantastic. They have +5.8 net rating during this undefeated start, and their offense is averaging 115.1 points every 100 possessions.
- Their defense has been better since entering the bubble, but against Los Angeles they allowed 1.173 points per possession.
- Phoenix has really struggled to keep teams from shooting high percentages from the miid-range area of the floor.
- Each of their opponents shot at least 44.4% from that area of the floor, with the Wizards (47.2%) and Mavericks (45.5%) really finding success.
- Phoenix has also, consistently, been beat in the fast break during this three game stretch. In the three wins they allowed offensive ratings of 1.250 (LAC), 1.917 (DAL), 1.727 (WSH) in the fastbreak.
- The mid-range numbers are important in this matchup.
- Remember, Indiana ranked 4th in frequency of mid-range attempts in the regular season, 3rd in mid-range shooting accuracy (44.0%).
- During their own 3-0 start the Pacers have been murking fools in that area of the floor.
- They shot 46.6% on mid-range jumpers in their win against Washington, 50.0% in their other two wins against Orlando and Philadelphia.
- TJ Warren is a mid-range scoring machine (47% frequency, 49% shooting this season) who is averaging 39.6 PPG in Orlando. He’s averaged over 1.7 points per shot attempt in two of the Pacers wins. Do they have an answer for him today?
- Warren has been a big part of a suddenly resurgent Pacers offense that has posted a 118.2 offensive rating in three Orlando games.
- Just like Phoenix though, I have big questions about Indiana’s current level of play and how sustainable/real it is.
- Their three opponents, Orlando (112.7), Washington (112.7) and Philadelphia (114.1) have struggled on their own defensively as well. Have the Pacers been exploiting a soft schedule up to this point?
Injury Report
Indiana Pacers
- Malcolm Brogdon, Neck (Questionable)
- Goga Bitzadze, Knee (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns
- Aron Baynes, Knee (Out)
- Elie Okobo, Ankle (Out)
- Kelly Oubre, Knee (Doubtful)
L.A. Clippers @ Dallas [Open: LAC -4, 231]
- Despite finishing with the best offense in the regular season, the Dallas Mavericsk struggled to find success against the Clippers.
- In two games this season Dallas averaged just 1.010 points per possession, posted a -7.8 net rating while going 0-2 in the series.
- Having said that, it has been the defense of Dallas that has held them back. Opponents are averaging 114.1 points every 100 possessions against the Mavericks, and scoring and average of 126.6 points per game.
- The Mavericks’ rim and perimeter defense have been very weak. Opponents are shooting 37.9% from deep and two of their opponents (HOU, PHX) shot 74.4% and 80.8% respectively at the rim!
- Los Angeles, just like in the regular season, has yet to put a full squad on the floor, but it has not stopped them from finding success in certain areas of their offense.
- The Clippers are shooting 37.3% from deep, and averaged well over a point per possession in the halfcourt against New Orleans & Phoenix.
- How about this stat: Los Angeles is 1-2 in the Orlando bubble, but sill has a +5.8 net rating.
- The question here lies with the Clippers desire to win I think…
- As a result of the 1-2 start they now sit with just a 0.5 game lead over Denver for the 3rd seed. Is staying in their current spot, staring at a potential Dallas series, important to them?
Injury Report
Los Angeles Clippers
- Patrick Beverley, Calf (Out)
- Montrezl Harrell, Personal (Out)
Dallas Mavericks
- Seth Curry, Leg (Doubtful)
Portland @ Denver [Open: POR -4, 230]
- Is the power rating on Portland at a point where it’s beneficial to bet against them?
- Portland opened (-1) against Memphis, closed (-3.5) needed OT to win and cover.
- They were then catching 4 points against Boston in a game they lost, ultimately pushed.
- Finally, were catching 3.5 in a game against the Rockets they eventually won.
- Now, they’re suddenly laying 4 against Denver!? Yes, an injured Denver but that is still quite the swing.
- Keep in mind, Portland still has the fifth worse defensive rating in the bubble (116.6). This a team that ranks 2nd in Orlando in offensive efficiency, but still only has a +2.1 net rating due to its poor defense.
- Denver has their own issues on defense (117.8) in Orlando, and has a -1.2 net rating because of it which is a troublesome sign.
- However, this Denver team’s offense has been good enough to take advantage of Portland’s defense as well.
- Namely, Michael Porter Jr who has totaled 67 points, 27 rebounds in his last two games.
- This game, to me, is all about the number and that 4 looks slightly inflated.
Injury Report
Portland Trail Blazers
- Jaylen Adams, Back (Out)
Denver Nuggets
- Jamal Murray, Hamstring (Questionable)
- Will Barton, Knee (Doubtful)
- Gary Harris, Hip (Doubtful)
Los Angeles @ Houston [Open: LAL -1.5, 227.5]
Injury Report
Los Angeles Lakers
- Rajon Rondo, Hand (Out)
Houston Rockets
- Russell Westbrook, Quad (Questionable)
- Eric Gordon, Ankle (Out)
Hardwood Handicappers 