Oklahoma City @ Phoenix [Open: PHX -3.5, 225.5]
- Who’s playing for the Thunder?
- Both Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel missed the contest Sunday resting some injuries. However, indications are that they are minor, could play if it was a must-win/playoff scenario. Do they find their way into the lineup?
- This number is incredible, likely a result of injury concerns. Opening Phoenix -3.5 and up to -5 as of this writing. Fve points better on a neutral for the Suns over the Thunder?
- Is this the time to take advantage of an inflated power rating on the undefeated Suns?
- Oklahoma City has been great defensively in Orlando, posting a 103.3 defensive rating in five games.
- The Thunder have really clamped down along the perimeter, allowing just 25.0% on 3PA in the bubble. On top of that, only two opponents have shot above 30% on mid-range attempts (MEM, DEN).
- Really their rim protection has been an issue. Four of their five opponents have shot at least 73.1% at the rim, with Memphis hitting 90.9% of their attempts at the rim on Aug. 7th.
- It seems like an anomaly only because OKC is the 13th ranked rim defense in the NBA (63.2%).
- Regardless, they’ll be tested by this suddenly potent Suns offense which has a 115.0 offensive rating in five seeding games.
- The team has improved in many areas, starting with 3P shooting. For the season Phoenix is shooting 35.4% on 31.8 3PA per game. In Orlando they’re taking just under one more 3PA per game (32.6) but shooting 37.4%
- Have to wonder if the new-found shooting touch lasts considering the numbers all season long.
- Phoenix’s halfcourt offense has been much better too, averaging over a point per possession in Orlando and in four of five seeding games.
- However, they were a top-half of the league offense in the halfcourt (95.9) so not surprising.
- The big question for me is, how real is the defensive performance for Phoenix?
- The team’s defensive rating this season is 110.9, but in Orlando it’s currently 107.0 over five games. Why is it so much better suddenly? Is it sustainable?
- Phoenix was one of the worst defensive teams against the mid-range shot this season (28th), and that continues in Orlando as every opponent, save for one, has shot above 44% on all mid-range shots.
- The biggest difference I can find is with the 3P shot. On the season Suns’ opponents have shot 36.3% on 32.0 3PA per game. In Orlando they’re shooting 29.3% on 29.4 3PA per game!
- Phoenix’s defense could have improved, but that is likely to regress to the mean. Whether that is against an OKC team that shoots just 36.0% as a whole remains to be seen.
Injury Report
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Steven Adams, Leg (Out)
- Danilo Gallinari, Ankle (Out)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Calf (Out)
- Nerlens Noel, Ankle (Out)
Phoenix Suns
- Elie Okobo, Ankle (Out)
- Aron Baynes, Knee (Out)
- Kelly Oubre, Kee (Doubtful)
Dallas @ Utah
- With so many bodies not missing this game for Dallas it makes quite a few of their statistical trends useless.
- Add in the questionable status of Mitchell, and this is a pass.
Injury Report
Dallas Mavericks
- Luka Doncic, Ankle (Out)
- Kristaps Porzingis, Knee (Out)
- Dorian Finney-Smith, Hip (Out)
- Courtney Lee, Calf (Out)
- Seth Curry, Leg (Probable)
Utah Jazz
- Donovan Mitchell, Leg (Questionable)
- Emmanuel Mudiay, Knee (Questionable)
Toronto @ Milwaukee
- Two teams with nothing to play for in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview.
- Both teams have had their issues in the bubble, but you can’t really feel comfortable here knowing closing rotations could very likely be reserve units for both teams.
Injury Report
Toronto Raptors
- Not Submitted Yet
Milwaukee Bucks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Toothache (Probable)
Indiana @ Miami
- Miami has been pretty poor on defense without Jimmy Butler. In their last three games the Heat have a 117.5 defensive rating. In the two games with Butler they have a 107.1 defensive rating.
- Will it improve that much, quickly? Probably not, but we do know that they’re more than likely going to improve on defense to some extent.
- With Butler on the floor Miami’s net rating is +5.3 and they allow just 35.4% from 3P range. 37.7% on all mid-range attempts.
- Indiana’s offense has been very solid in Orlando, 112.8 offensive efficiency. They’ve shot the ball well from mid-range, shooting 46.7% or better in four of five in the bubble.
- Remember, Indiana ranked 4th in frequency of mid-range attempts (34.1%), the fact that they’re shooting the ball well in an area of the floor that is a big part of their offense is promising.
- The area of the floor in which Miami can be exploited defensively is inside at the rim. They’re allowing 65.9% within four feet this season, and it’s continued in Orlando as they’ve allowed an average shooting percentage of 69.9% at the rim per game.
- Issue is Indiana is not great around the rim. On the year they take 36.7% of their attempts within four feet, but shoot just 62.4% … In Orlando they’ve shot above 64% in a game just once.
- Despite the absence of Butler and Dragic for multiple games, the Heat have performed well on offense (112.9 offensive rating).
- They’re staying afloat with 3P shooting. In Orlando they’re hitting 37.2% from deep on 39.8 3PA, and an identical 37.6% in three games without Butler.
- The Heat will be a test for Indiana’s perimeter defense, which has been great all season and in the bubble.
- On the year Indiana is allowing 34.9% on 3PA, 33.3% in their five seeding games so far. In their two games this season Miami has cracked that perimeter defense, shooting 42.1% across two games.
- The last part of this is anecdotal, but it’s a thought: This is the first of two seeding games between these two teams. The top three seeds in the Eastern Conference have been clinched, leaving Miami, Indiana and Philadelphia jumbled together at 4,5 and 6.
- The 76ers just lost Ben Simmons to a knee injury for the foreseeable future, Joel Embiid left Sunday’s game against Portland with an ankle injury.
- More than likely, Indiana and Miami will be facing one another in the first round. That means two seeding games AND a best-of-seven series. How does that alter the level of play in this, and the final seeding game between these two clubs?
Injury Report
Indiana Pacers
- T.J. Warren, Foot (Questionable)
Miami Heat
- Kendrick Nunn, Quarantine (Out)
- Jimmy Butler, Ankle (Questionable)
- Goran Dragic, Ankle (Questionable)
Denver @ L.A. Lakers [Open: LAL -4.5, 221]
- First have to wonder if either team will be thinking of restricting minutes for anyone.
- Los Angeles has played Anthony Davis in all six games, 33.8 minutes per game. Is this an opportunity to give him some rest? Los Angeles locked into the top seed, no motivation against potential playoff opponents.
- Denver coming off of a 2OT victory against Utah on Saturday. It was Jamal Murray’s first game back, Malone has shown he will sit guys late in games (See Portland loss).
- Having said that, it will be interesting to see if Denver’s defense helps cure what ails the Lakers’ offense.
- The Lakers posted 111 points their loss to Indiana on Saturday, but failed to score efficiently yet again. Although, there are worse offensive ratings to be had.
- Los Angeles averaged 1.089 points per possession, struggling away from the rim: 24.0% mid-range, 34.2% 3P.
- They’re still averaging less than 100 points per 100 possessions (97.9), but that rating against Indiana was the second-largest individual game offensive rating in Orlando (112.7 against Utah).
- Now, they’re going to be down KCP?
- Without Avery Bradley AND Caldwell-Pope the Lakers are in a really tough spot from a shooting standpoint.
- KCP is the leading 3P shooter (38.5% on 3.5 3PA) on a team that shoots 34.6% on the season.
- Danny Green (36.7% on 4.8 3PA), Quinn Cook (37.5% on 1.9 3PA) are their only active players shooting over 36% on more than one 3PA per game.
- LeBron James (34.5% on 6.3 3PA), Alex Caruso (33.3% on 1.9 3PA), Anthony Davis (33.2% on 3.6 3PA), Kyle Kuzma (31.1% on 4.5 3PA) are the only other active players that shoot above 30% on more than one 3PA per game.
- This matters because opponents have been terrorizing Denver from the perimeter in Orlando.
- The Nuggets have give up 44.4% to opposing shooters in the bubble, most recently allowing Utah to go 22/55 (40.0%).
- Denver’s just been bad defensively overall, giving 118.7 per 100 possessions in the bubble.
- The other area in which they have struggled on defense is in transition.
- Three of five Nuggets opponents have averaged 1.444 or more points per play in transition.
- So, while the Lakers might not be able to take advantage of the Nuggets shoddy perimeter defense, they could get out and run a bit.
- It’s a really big positive that Denver’s offense has been pretty smooth, and they’re not doing anything different.
- They rank 5th in shooting at the rim on the season (65.5%), have shot 75.0% or higher at the rim in all bubble games, but one (SAS).
- They also rank 8th in mid-range shooting percentage (42.1%), have shot 41.2% or higher in four of five games.
- Denver is not shooting well in the bubble (32.2 3P%), but they’re a 35.5% shooting team anyway that has been missing three perimeter players and is still missing two.
- Los Angeles has not missed a beat on defense, so this is going to be a great matchup.
- Lakers are allowing 105.0 points every 100 possessions, right in line with their season-long mark (105.5).
- Opponents have shot just 60.7% at the rim this season. How does Denver’s offense look against one of the best rim defending teams in the league?
Injury Report
Denver Nuggets
- Gary Harris, Hip (Out)
- Will Barton, Knee (Out)
Los Angeles Lakers
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ribs (Out)
- Rajon Rondo, Hand (Out)
Hardwood Handicappers 