Open Series Price [Via Westgate]: Boston (-400) Philadelphia (+330)
Obviously Philadelphia took a massive hit when it lost Ben Simmons, but Joel Embiid could be enough in a series against Boston. I don’t think I’m ready to write up the obituary just yet on the 76ers’ season.
Let’s start by examining the regular season series between these two. The 76ers overall went 3-1 against Boston with +2.3 net rating. They really thrived defensively, limiting the Celtics to just 106.9 points every 100 possessions. The lack of size was pretty apparent for Boston.
Philadelphia posted a 55.2 rebounding rate, pulled in 32.7% of their missed shot attempts and averaged 16.3 2nd chance points per game. The 76ers scored 46.5% of their points against the Celtics in the paint (49.5 PITP per game). How much of this advantage do they lose with Simmons on the sideline? They still have Embiid, of course. In three games against the Celtics Embiid averaged 21.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.0 BLK.
Then you have the profile of Philadelphia without Simmons. On the season, Philadelphia has +3.8 net rating with Simmons off the floor. Their offensive rating is 114.6 with the biggest difference coming in both pace and shooting. Their 3P shooting is 40.1% with Simmons off the floor, and their transition frequency sits at just 11.6% which is slower (Transition frequency is 16.5% with Simmons on the floor).
In their last five seeding games their statistical profile paints a similar picture. They posted a 120.2 offensive rating, shot 42.4% on 34.0 3PA per game. They scored only 8.8 fastbreak points per game. In other words, they play much more halfcourt, shoot the ball better and overall have a very efficient offense.
The big positive though was that their rebounding numbers don’t really take a hit:
- Ben Simmons off the floor: 29.1 OREB%
- Last five games (Without Simmons): 31.1 OREB%
However, there is a negative: Poor defense:
- Defensive rating when Ben Simmons off the floor: 110.8
- Defensive rating last five games: 115.2
This what is going to ultimately hold them back in this series. Boston is such a skilled offensive team. They finished the season 4th in offensive efficiency (112.8), and in the bubble the rating was even better (116.7). As I noted earlier, part of the reason Boston failed to have success against Philadelphia in the regular season was due to an offense that struggled to operate against a massive defensive foe. Now that defense is going to be smaller, and statistically much worse. How do the 76ers handle a series that is likely going to be more high-scoring than the regular season series?
Prediction: Boston 4-2
I still have plenty of reservations when it comes to this Celtics team. They lack depth size. However, that is going to hold them back in the big picture in series against Toronto, Milwaukee or Miami (Should they face them in the Eastern Conference Finals). However, in this sort of series it will just cause them to be stretched out to six or seven games.
Hardwood Handicappers 