Opening Series Price [Via Westgate]: Denver (-200) Utah (+175)
This is a great series that has injuries/absences front-and-center. My first thought was that this price was too cheap on Denver. It has since moved to Denver (-290), but due to the issues with Utah’s roster.
As we know, Mike Conley left Sunday morning for the birth of his child, and Ed Davis will miss the entire series with a knee injury. The price adjustment has more to do with Conley than it does with Davis who played in just three seeding games, averaged 11.8 minutes in those contests.
Conley is a massive missing piece. In the bubble he averaged 18.0 PPG on 43.2% shooting (37.2% on 7.2 3PA). Utah, a team that takes 38.2% of its shots from beyond the arc, 35.2 3PA per game, is now down two shooters who took a combined 12.7 3PA per game. Bogdanovich being the other shooter. The Jazz were taking more threes in the bubble (42.1 3PA) but shooting at a lower rate (35.6%). How is that going to look without Conley?
We do have an idea of what Utah will look like without Conley and Bogdanovich. The team’s net rating is -7.7 with the duo off the floor. They posted a 106.8 offensive rating and a 114.6 defensive rating in those minutes.
That aside, the question for me is all about Denver’s defense. Before the hiatus the Nuggets posted a 108.8 defensive rating, good for 12th in the league. However in their seeding games their defensive rating was 121.7 … Why?
Denver’s perimeter defense was awful. Opponents shot 44.8% on 36.3 3PA per game, 49.4% from the field overall. They allowed 34.6% on 33.6 3PA per game during the regular season before the hiatus. What changed with their perimeter defense? It seems to be due to their injuries.
Gary Harris has not played during the seeding games. With him on the floor this season opponent 3P% has dropped by 6.1% according to CTG. The same goes for Will Barton. With him on the floor opponent 3P% drops by 5.3%!! Overall, both guys are positives for Denver’s defense.
Defensive rating w/ Barton on the floor: -7.2
Defensive rating w/ Harris on the floor: -5.6
It’s pretty clear that when Baton and Harris get healthy the Nuggets will improve defensively.
So, can Utah take advantage of that shoddy perimeter defense without Conley? In their seeding game matchup they did. The Jazz went 22/55 from beyond the arc, and that was with Conley going just 3/11 from deep. With Conley’s absence it just means guys like Ingles, O’Neale, Niang and Clarkson will have more attempts. They need to be efficient with those attempts.
Prediction: Denver 4-3
As long as the status of Barton and Harris are unknown it is going to be tough for Denver to win this series convincingly. The absence of Conley is going to hurt Utah, but they at least have other reliable shooting options to fill his void from that perspective. They will miss his shot creation, as many of the other options outside of Jordan Clarkson lack that ability. However, given the large enough sample size of Denver’s defense without their duo along the perimeter the Jazz should have enough to make this a series.
Hardwood Handicappers 