Opening Series Price [Via Westgate]: Los Angeles (-450) Dallas (+375)
There seems to be a perception, and I could be wrong about this, that Dallas is going to be a thorn in the paw of Los Angeles in this first round. I think that is absolutely incorrect. The Clippers clearly wanted this matchup in the first round, and it is one that really works in their favor.
First, look at the regular season between these two clubs. The Clippers won all three matchups, outscoring the Mavericks by 9.9 points every 100 possessions. Los Angeles dominated on both ends of the floor.
Defensively they held best offensive team in the regular season (115.9 offensive rating) to just 106.0 points every 100 possessions. The 3-point shot was the biggest aspect of Dallas’ offense throughout the season, but they shot just 31.0% on 43.0 3PA per game against Los Angeles. There could a be a positive regression in store for Dallas when it comes to their 3P shooting, but unless they somehow acquire two defensive wings to follow around Kawhi Leonard and Paul George this series is going to be very lopsided.
Leonard was on the floor for all three games against Dallas. He averaged 31.0 PPG on 45.2% shooting from the floor to go with 8.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Paul George played in just two games, but the Mavericks still have no real option for him on defense either. In their seeding game matchup George consistently found open spots on the floor, leading to a 24 point performance on 10-for-21 shooting. Think about, who are the defensive options for these two?
Prediction: Los Angeles 4-1
Yeah, it’s a short write-up, but this is really what I think of this series. Dallas has struggled on the season defensively, and it continued in the bubble where they allowed 120.6 points every 100 possessions in their eight seeding games. When you have an offensive player that is at the caliber of Luka Doncic you could very well steal a game from a team like Los Angeles. However, there is nothing in what we’ve seen over three games, and a season of numbers, to suggest the Mavericks will upset the Clippers in a best-of-seven series.
Hardwood Handicappers 