Orlando 122 Milwaukee 110
Two-Point Pct: Orlando 58%, Milwaukee 52%
Three-Pointers: Orlando 16/41, Milwaukee 14/42
Free Throws: Orlando 18/19, Milwaukee 18/28
Rebounds: Orlando 48, Milwaukee 47
Turnovers: Orlando 15, Milwaukee 16
Pace: 106.5
Pointspread: Milwaukee by 14, total of 225.5
The first shocker of the 2020 NBA postseason is somewhat of an oddity because the straight up result and monster cover weren’t driven by an extreme discrepancy in a random stat.
Orlando won the often-fickle trey category, but just by six points. The shooting performance was an outlier for the Magic when you consider their season-long profile. Orlando took 32.2 3PA per game on the season, shot 34.3% from beyond the arc. Have to figure you won’t see Orlando shoot 39.0% on that many attempts again in the series.
However, keep in mind Milwaukee’s defensive philosophy: Cut off the rim, allow perimeter shots. Opponents took 39.3% of their attempts from deep against the Bucks, shot 36.5% from that area of the floor. So, while Orlando’s shooting success could be an outlier, remember that this is how Milwaukee plays its opponents.
The huge-underdog Magic were competitive across the boxscore, matching or besting Milwaukee in all key areas. Nikola Vucevic was the standout, with 35 points and 13 rebounds. That cancelled out Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 31 points and 17 rebounds. Will be tough for Vucevic to create a head-to-head dead heat every time out. Milwaukee will need to lift its game significantly to match market expectations.
Miami 113 Indiana 101
Two-Point Pct: Miami 59%, Indiana 50%
Three-Pointers: Miami 13/35, Indiana 20/25
Free Throws: Miami 20/25, Indiana 19/22
Rebounds: Miami 35, Indiana 37
Turnovers: Miami 9, Indiana 13
Pace: 92.1 (very slow)
Pointspread: Miami by 4, total of 216
A glacial pace helped hide Miami’s strong offensive performance. Its efficiency mark was 122.7, meaning it would have scored 122-123 points in a 100-possession game. Shooting 13 of 35 for 37.1% on treys is the same as hitting 56% on deuces. The Heat then shot 59% on actual deuces, and protected the ball well. Miami won the final eight minutes by a 24-14 count (without a free throw parade), reflecting sharp performance in crunch time.
Yet again Indiana failed to run its offense they way it wanted to. The Pacers shot 38.5% from mid-range in Game 1 (10/26) against Miami. Overall, in five games against the Heat this season the Pacers are shooting just 38.9% from the mid-range area of the floor (46/118). This is such a massive piece to Indiana’s offense, and they cannot get it going against Miami.
Houston 123 Oklahoma City 108
rTwo-Point Pct: OKC 49%, Houston 62%
Three-Pointers: OKC 13/35, Houston 20/52
Free Throws: OKC 21/25, Houston 17/19
Rebounds: OKC 46, Houston 36
Turnovers: OKC 12, Houston 7
Pace: 98.5
Pointspread: Pick-em, total of 224.5
Houston earned its first double-digit lead about a minute into the second quarter, and Oklahoma City never got closer the rest of the game. Russell Westbrook wasn’t missed, and that is something we mentioned could be the case when you analyzed some of the lineup numbers. As we know, Houston had a +4.4 net rating with Westbrook off the floor this season, a +6.5 net rating with Westbrook off and Harden on. Against the Thunder in Game 1 their net rating was +16.9!
Oklahoma City really struggled to keep Houston out of the middle. The Rockets outscored them in the paint (44-38), shot 77.3% within four feet (17/22). The Thunder were not a dominant rim protecting team (63.4%, 14th) on the season, so this could be something to track going forward. Houston won’t be shooting 77% every night, but efficiency at the rim is key to their offense’s success
Big positive for Houston was the safe lead, allowing Mike D’Antoni to limit starter minutes to 34 (Harden and Tucker) or less.
Portland 100, Lakers 93
Two-Point Pct: Portland 40%, Lakers 45%
Three-Pointers: Portland 13/34, Lakers 5/32
Free Throws: Portland 25/33, Lakers 20/31
Rebounds: Portland 50, Lakers 55
Turnovers: Portland 16, Lakers 9
Pace: 101.1
Pointspread: Lakers by 6.5, total of 233
The Lakers are still going to win this series. I’m confident in that still. However, those with financial investments in Los Angeles to win the NBA Finals have to be a bit shooketh.
Their offense has issues. Against a defense that ranked 27th in efficiency in the regular season, and 20th among bubble teams, the Lakers managed a putrid 90.3 offensive rating on Tuesday night. What the hell? Los Angeles seems to have next to zero offensive support outside of AD and LeBron since the Orlando experience began. Remember, they finished 20th themselves in offensive rating during the seeding games (104.5)
Obviously three-pointers were the key. Portland was plus 24 points from behind the arc in a game it only won by seven. Should we expect the duo of KCP and Green to go a combined 2/13 from beyond the arc, and 4/21 from the floor? Probably not.
Side note: Everyone loves Caruso, and rightfully so. He’s a pest on defense with a really good feel when helping, especially in some high leverage spots. However, more Caruso, while a positive on defense is not on offense. He went 1/6 from the floor, 0/3 from beyond the arc and didn’t even make a trip to the line in 29 minutes tonight. Caruso did a post +12 today, but they do need more scoring from him.
Despite all of that, the Lakers won most of the stats you’d expect for the perceived superior team. There’s just not enough margin for error in neutral court basketball for a team to survive a 5/32 performance on bombs.
Damian Lillard scored 34 points for the winners. His plus/minus of +19 was notable, if only because you can see how much trouble Portland is in when he’s not on the floor.
He’s also still at it dude…
This is honestly one of my favorite single-handed runs for an athlete I have seen as a sports fan.
Side Note
After favorites went 4-0 straight up and ATS Monday, both #1 seeds lost outright Tuesday.
Hardwood Handicappers 