What’s up folks?! Can’t believe we’re back already, right? Only 72 days between association action and I am here for it.
So here’s the write-ups for the games tonight, in a somewhat different form than usual. If you prefer the bullet point style I usually use give me a shout and we can change it up.
I’ll try to be pretty consistent with these, but more than likely I will post write ups on games I like that day, and some injury reports for the others. As always, all the analysis of mine, if you’re interested, will be on The Edge on VSiN!
Good luck this year, and thank you so very much for the support.
Golden State @ Brooklyn (-5.5, 228.5)
There really could not be a more fun game to open the season with. We get to see Kevin Durant for the first time in over 550 days, and it will be in a game against the franchise with which he won his two titles. He and Kyrie Irving make Brooklyn must-watch TV every night they take the floor together. We also get to see what Golden State looks like with their new-look, semi-competitive roster that will get up and down the floor.
We’ve seen a good amount of movement on the side and the total, so let’s start there. As of this writing the number Nets (-7) and for good reason. Draymond Green will not play due to a foot injury suffered during a practice last week, and that should hamper an already below average Warriors defense. With Green sidelined, who is drawing Durant on defense? Andrew Wiggins was the 85th ranked SF in DRPM (Defensive Real Plus-Minus) last year and Kelly Oubre was 94th. Kent Bazemore? He’s a really solid defender, but he’s listed at 6-foot-5 and gives a ton of length away to Durant. It is hard to see how Golden State matches up with Durant on defense. Bazemore is also a much better match for Irving on that end of the floor.
Green’s absence was likely part of this total jumping up two points from the opening number. Westgate and a few other shops posted totals while I was on the air on The Edge and figured that 228.5 would find its way over 230 points. It has, but its also not just due to Green’s injury. While the Warriors project to have a somewhat poor defensive season, so too do the Nets. ESPN’s Kevin Pelton projects them to have the 26th ranked defense in efficiency this season. Kyrie, Spencer Dinwiddie (Who I believe fits best next to Irving) and Joe Harris were below average defenders who allowed 115.4 p/100 when on the floor together according to CTG.
Also worth noting that Golden State wants to run. Steve Kerr has been pretty vocal about that in the offseason, and it showed somewhat in the preseason where the Warriors finished T5 in pace (108.83). Brooklyn just happens to have a head coach in Steve Nash that ran the seven seconds or less offense under Mike D’Antoni who just so happens to be on the staff. Brooklyn finished the preseason 10th in pace (107.75).
Long Story Short…
There’s no play here for me in the end. I sadly missed out on the opening total of 228.5 so will be sitting back and waiting for some in-game opportunities here. If Golden State gets off to a decent start I will be looking for a smaller number on Brooklyn. The injury to Green changes the game for me, and with no true matchup for Durant this will be a tough one for the Warriors to overcome in my estimation
Injury Report
Golden State Warriors
- Draymond Green, F Foot Out
- Alen Smailagic, F Knee Out
Brooklyn Nets
- Nicolas Claxton, C Knee Out
L.A. Clippers @ L.A. Lakers (-2.5, 223.5)
First game is potentially an exciting shootout between former flames. This one is just a solid rivalry between two opponents who share a gym. LeBron poked fun at the Clippers’ untimely demise in Orlando last season, and it will be ring night for the Lakers, adding to the intensity. I mean, as much intensity as you can have in an empty building with no fans.
One of the more fascinating angles in this game is how the Los Angeles’ Lakers will look after such a short turnaround. They last played 72 days ago! That’s clearly a really short offseason, but I believe that the “effects” of that will play out more in the season-long stuff (Win totals, division, etc.) than it will on a game-to-game basis. If LeBron is on the floor, the Lakers will play damn hard the whole time.
So, what’s the handicap here? Well, if this series is anything like last year we can expect a tight, low-scoring affair tonight. These two split the regular season series at two games apiece last year, but the Clippers came out on top in terms of net rating (+1.8). The pace was slow (100.13) and all four games fell under the total. There really is no reason to think that changes on Tuesday, and it is why bettors have seen the total drop to 221.5 in a lot of shops. There a few shops that holding strong at 222.5 right now as of my writing this.
From a side perspective the number has been bumped from Lakers (-2) to (-3) almost everywhere you look. Marcus Morris is not going to play which hurts the Clippers a bit. Morris was the starting PF for a Clippers lineup that outscored opponents by 23.5 points every 100 possessions. That lineup now looks somewhat different with Serge Ibaka starting at center and Nicolas Batum more than likely starting at the four in place of Morris. Batum could be a hole in this lineup on defense, which could lead to seeing Luke Kennard share the floor plenty with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Kennard is not a dynamic defender, but his presence raises the offensive output for the Clippers which might be worth the trade-off if they cannot trust Batum on defense.
Long Story Short…
I bet the Clippers (+3) here. The core pieces of the Clippers dominant defensive lineup are still here. When Kawhi, PG and Patrick Beverley shared the floor together last season they allowed just 104.5 p/100 and still posted a 118.2 offensive rating. The Lakers are upgraded, but the difference from last season to this season with this roster is two-fold. One, Gasol is not the offensive rebounder Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee are. Two, the bench is much better offensively, but slightly worse defensively. Kyle Kuzma has had a negative impact on his team’s defensive rating when on the floor each year in his career, as has Montrezl Harrell. Schroder had the best defensive year of his career last season, but that is by far the outlier. In a tight game that projects to be pretty slow-paced I will take the points with a small slice of the moneyline (+130) as well.
Injury Report
Los Angeles Clippers
- Marcus Morris, F Knee Out
Los Angeles Lakers
- None
Hardwood Handicappers 