First off, what a night! It was awesome to see the NBA back in action, even if the first game was a blowout. Kevin Durant looked like he never missed a second, which is great because you always hate to see catastrophic injuries to superstars like that. How about this shot?!
Seems like a simple mid-range jumper, but the stop-and-pop and make over James Wiseman was so impressive in real time. Anyway, on to the show!
Remember, the lines and totals you see are the opening numbers. It’s really important to know where these lines opened and where they have moved when betting on them. It’s true for every sport, obviously.
Knicks @ Pacers (-8.5, 212.5)
As of my writing this, the Knickerbockers are the only bet I have made. I really like this front court for New York, and wrote about it in our VSiN NBA Betting Guide. Mitchell Robinson has slowly become one of the best young big men in the NBA. He blocked 4.3 percent of opponents’ shot attempts last season (96th percentile), snatched 12.6 percent of his team’s missed shots (92nd percentile) and averaged 1.457 points per shot attempt (100th percentile). He leads a Knicks team that finished 4th in overall rebounding rate, and 1st in offensive rebounding. That matters when your opponent, Indiana, finished 24th in overall rebounding rate last season and 24th or lower in all other rebounding categories.
I’m really intrigued by what Tom Thibodeau does with this core of young players on defense. New York finished last season as the 13th ranked team in rim defense, 7th in defending the mid-range. There is something to work with when it comes to his defensive scheme. We should definitely see some flashes here today.
I should note that I am really high on Indiana and the new regime of Nate Bjorkgren. I really believe he can unlock the Pacers offense, taking into 2020, but as they integrate themselves in that system — and T.J. Warren deals with a foot injury — this number seems pretty high for Indiana. I made it Pacers (-6.5) so there’s enough value here to play the Knicks.
Injury Report
New York Knickerbockers
- Austin Rivers (Groin) — Out
- Mitchell Robinson (Ankle) — Probable
- Dennis Smith Jr. (Quad) — Probable
- Omari Spellman (Knee) — Out
Indiana Pacers
- T.J. Warren (Foot) — Questionable
- Goga Bitadze (Ankle) — Out
- Jeremy Lamb (Knee) — Out
- Brian Bowen II (Groin) — Out
Bucks (-2 [-112], 225.5) @ Celtics
How bad is this situation for Boston? It’s what I want to figure out when I watch this game tonight. And I don’t mean just tonight by ‘situation’ I mean the beginning of the season. Kemba Walker is obviously sidelined for a bit, and their depth is going to be tested with Romeo Langford out recovering from surgery on his wrist. This is a Celtics team that finished 29th in bench scoring last season, and lost Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter and Brad Wanamaker in the offseason. They now don’t have Walker and Langford, and while Tristan Thompson is available tonight, he will be on a minutes restriction. Seems like a pretty tough spot to be in, right?
Having said that, Milwaukee has its own questions to answer. Wes Matthews, Eric Bledsoe and George Hill are all gone. Jrue Holiday is an upgrade, but Bryn Forbes (Who I like) and Bobby Portis are arguably downgrades by comparison. But those are questions that will be answered over the course of an entire season. Tonight, there seems to be a real advantage for Milwaukee here. Boston is thin, and injuries are already taking a toll on the roster early. In the minutes without Thompson on the floor, who is matching up with Giannis Antetokounmpo? I’m a big matchup guy, and give the state of Boston’s roster right now they might be up against it here. It is why we saw the line go from Bucks (-2) to (-3.5) which is the widely available number right now.
Strongly leaning toward Milwaukee, even with the line move here. Thought Bucks (-4.5) was a fairer number, especially when playing on what is essentially a neutral court. Not playing it yet though. Hoping to get some buyback on Boston and a better number.
Injury Report
Milwaukee Bucks
- D.J. Augustin (Calf) — Doubtful
Boston Celtics
- Romeo Langford (Wrist) — Out
- Kemba Walker (Knee) — Out
- Tacko Fall (Eye) — Out
Pelicans @ Raptors (-5.5, 229.5)
What a line move here, huh? The market has hammered New Orleans, not surprising, to the point where this line is now Raptors (-3.5) in multiple shops. Get used to seeing this. Much like last season, both before the bubble and in it, the betting market will be all over New Orleans. However, I will be looking to be playing against that sentiment until it blows up in my face.
Despite all of the personnel losses in the offseason, this Raptors team should still be one of the best defensive teams in the league. They still have the core of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby. With those three on the floor last season the Raptors gave up just 102.6 points every 100 possessions! That puts them in the 96th percentile of qualified lineups in defensive efficiency. I have some questions about how New Orleans will look on offense, especially now that Eric Bledsoe is in the mix. This looks like a team that could hurt for shooting. Bledsoe was a 34.4% shooter last season, Lonzo Ball was a 32% career shooter before hitting 37.9% of deep attempts last year and both Zion Williamson and Steven Adams are not threats. How do they operate against Toronto?
Really this is just about line value. As I was writing the market has gone back to Raptors (-4) which something I expected. Be careful when betting this Pelicans team this year. More often than not, the value will usually be on the other side.
Injury Report
New Orleans Pelicans
- Wenyen Gabriel (Knee) — Out
Toronto Raptors
- Patrick McCaw (Knee) — Out
- Norm Powell (Health & Safety Protocol) — Questionable
Pistons @ T-Wolves (-5, 224.5)
We’re really doing this? I honestly did not expect to be either writing up, or betting on, this nightmare of a game, but here we are.
This is all about the number for me. Minnesota projects to be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Look at this nugget from the NBA Betting Guide: In 41 possessions together, D’Aangelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns posted an offensive rating of 121.3, had an effective field goal percentage of 61.9 and still posted a -22.0 net rating!!!!! Russell ranked 129th out of 138 shooting guards in DRPM and Towns was the worst center in that metric last season. Where is the defense coming from? And now the market wants to lay points with this team?
Detroit might be one of the worst teams in the league this year, but the Timberwolves might be too! The Pistons also are not this unit devoid of talent. Blake Griffin, if healthy, is still an above average scorer. Jerami Grant, arguably the gem of the offseason, has worked on his own offensive game and become a consistent shooter. Derrick Rose still has the ability to attack off the bounce. The Pistons have their limits, but not to the point where they should be catching six points against Minnesota. It’s a number I am willing to sink with and the market has started to come off of it.
Injury Report
Detroit Pistons
- Deividas Sirvydis (Not With Team) — Out
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Jordan McLaughlin (Health & Safety Protocol) — Questionable
- Jaylen Nowell (Calf) — Out
Hornets @ Cavs (-1 [-109], 213.5)
Injury Report
Charlotte Hornets
- Grant Riller (Knee) — Out
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Kevin Love (Calf) — Out
- Kevin Porter Jr. (Personal) — Out
- Dante Exum (Hip) — Out
- Matthew Dellavedova (Concussion) — Out
Heat (-3.5 [-112], 219.5) @ Magic
Injury Report
Miami Heat
- Gabe Vincent (Knee) — Questionable
Orlando Magic
- Al-Farouq Aminu (Knee) — Out
- James Ennis III (Hamstring) — Out
- Jonathan Isaac (Knee) — Out
Wizards @ 76ers (-7.5, 229.0)
Injury Report
Washington Wizards
- Rui Hachimura (Pink Eye) — Out
Philadelphia 76ers
- None
Hawks (-2, 230.5) @ Bulls
Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks
- Clint Capela (Achilles) — Doubtful
- Kris Dunn (Knee) — Out
- Brandon Goodwin (Elbow) — Questionable
- Onyeka Okongwu (Foot) — Out
- Rajon Rondo (Health & Safety Protocol) — Questionable
- Cam Reddish (Ankle) — Probable
- Kevin Huerter (Elbow) — Probable
Chicago Bulls
- Tomas Satoransky (Health & Safety Protocol) — Questionable
- Devon Dotson (Health & Safety Protocol) — Questionable
- Thaddeus Young (Leg) — Out
Spurs @ Grizzlies (-3, 231.5)
Injury Report
San Antonio Spurs
- Quinndary Weatherspoon (Knee) — Out
- Derrick White (Toe) — Out
Memphis Grizzlies
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (Knee) — Out
- Jontay Porter (Knee) — Out
- Killian Tillie (Hamstring) — Out
- Xavier Tillman (Knee) — Out
- Justise Winslow (Hip) — Out
Kings @ Nuggets (-8.5, 225.5)
Injury Report
Sacramento Kings
- DaQuan Jeffries (Back) — Out
- Jabari Parker (Back) — Out
Denver Nuggets
- JaMychal Green (Calf) — Out
- Greg Whittington (Knee) — Out
Jazz @ Blazers (-1.5 [-112], 229.0)
Injury Report
Utah Jazz
- Derrick Favors (Knee) — Probable)
Portland Trail Blazers
- Zach Collins (Ankle) — Out
- Nassir Little (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- Anfernee Simons (Hamstring) — Questionable
Mavs @ Suns (-1 [-109], 236.5)
Injury Report
Dallas Mavericks
- Maxi Kleber (Knee) — Probable
- Kristaps Porzingis (Knee) — Out
Phoenix Suns
- Chris Paul (Ankle) — Probable
- Frank Kaminsky (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- Abdel Nader (Concussion) — Out
- Dario Saric (Quad) — Out
Hardwood Handicappers 