Back in the saddle after a weekend of football.
I have a ton of duties during the weekend that revolve around the NFL (Sunday morning local radio, VSiN night show), so until the season ends I will probably be unavailable to write these up over the weekend. Apologies, but you don’t care about that! Let’s get to it…
Sunday Slaughter
How about yesterday? Not only did the Nets, Bucks and 76ers all lose, but they lost to the Hornets, Knicks and Cavaliers! I’m sure you’ve seen it already, but how do we not mention that a moneyline parlay of that trio would have won you about $14,000 with a $100 wager. How useful is that information?!
Anyway, something to watch today, and we could have an answer by the time I get this out, is the status of Kevin Durant. Brooklyn is playing in its first back-to-back tonight, and one would think the team would hold out Durant as he is coming off of that Achilles injury. His comments after the loss to Charlotte were ones that painted a picture of him playing, but he left the door open for him to sit…
I really want to play Brooklyn here, which leads us to our first game…
Memphis @ Brooklyn (-7.5, 237.5)
The market really respects Memphis, and that respect has been clear in the first two games of the season. They held strong at (-2) in the season-opening loss to San Antonio, and the line flipped on Saturday against Atlanta from Hawks (-1.5) to Grizzlies (-2.5) in a game they ended up losing 122-112 at home. It really does seem that this Grizzlies team is being priced as a full strength/improved team from last season, but that just is not the case. Jaren Jackson has not been available as he recovers from a knee injury, Justise Winslow is still not healthy. This is a team I want to play against more often than not until I see the market’s perception has been corrected.
Now, catching 6.5 points might seem like the correction has been made, but if both Durant and Kyrie Irving are playing tonight I do not believe it has. Memphis is giving up 119.4 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. That is the 28th worst mark in the NBA at this point. Now, they will potentially face the most skilled offensive duo in the league, and find a way to contain KD & Kyrie after Kevin Huerter cooked them for 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 3PA).
This is the pain of betting the NBA on a regular basis though. I could jump in at Nets (-6.5) right now, but then be sitting on that when KD is ruled out and it drops to (-5.5) or lower. I find myself thinking that Durant will not play today. Brooklyn has bigger goals than bouncing back from a loss to Charlotte on Dec. 27th. However, if there is any indication Durant is in, jump at 6.5 as I would expect that number to rise quickly once the news is official.
Injury Report
Memphis Grizzlies
- De’Anthony Melton (COVID Protocol) — Out
- Xavier Tillman (Knee) — Out
- Jaren Jackson (Knee) — Out
- Justise Winslow (Back) — Out
Brooklyn Nets
- Nic Claxton (Knee) — Out
- Spencer Dinwiddie (Knee) — Questionable
Portland @ L.A. Lakers (-4.5, 227.5)
Safe too say it has been a poor start for Portland, a team I was very high on coming into the season. Much of what plagued the Blazers in the Orlando Bubble still looms through two games of the new campaign. Portland has second-worst defensive rating on the season, according to Cleaning The Glass, allowing 120.2 points every 100 possessions. They got destroyed from beyond the arc by Utah (38.6% on 44 3PA), and had no answer within four feet of the hoop against Houston (67.4% on 43 rim attempts). That last stat is relatively troubling with the Lakers on deck.
Los Angeles has largely picked up where they left off on offense. They are shooting a healthy 76.7% at the rim through their three games this season, and that has led to the best offensive rating in the league (123.6). Oh, and it helps to be a 41.8% shooting team as well, a figure that will regress, but to what degree? Regardless, it does not seem like a great matchup for Portland, with or without Anthony Davis. The number dropped from the opener of Lakers (-4.5) to (-3.5) as of this writing, but I would expect that is the lowest the market will let this get, and some buyback could come shortly.
Lakers (-3.5) is the one bet I have right now for today.
Injury Report
Portland Trail Blazer
- Carmelo Anthony (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- Nassir Little (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- Zach Collins (Ankle) — Out
Los Angeles Lakers
- Anthony Davis (Calf) — Questionable
Houston @ Denver (-7.5, 225.0)
Injury Report
Houston Rockets
- Eric Gordon (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- John Wall (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- DeMarcus Cousins (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
- Ben McLemore (Health & Safety Protocol) — Out
Denver Nuggets
- JaMychal Green (Calf) — Questionable
Utah (-7.5, 221.0) @ Oklahoma City
Injury Report
Utah Jazz
- None
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Trevor Ariza (Personal) — Out
- Ty Jerome (Achilles) — Out
Detroit @ Atlanta (-9, 225.5)
Injury Report
Detroit Pistons
- Derrick Rose (Rest) — Out
- Blake Griffin (Knee, Load Management) — Out
- Jahlil Okafor (Foot) — Questionable
- Sekou Doumbouya (Ankle) — Questionable
Atlanta Hawks
- Kris Dunn (Ankle) — Out Indefinitely
- Danilo Gallinari (Foot) — Questionable
- Clint Capela (Achilles) — Probable
- Tony Snell (Foot) — Out
- Onyeka Okongwu (Foot/Toe) — Out
Hardwood Handicappers 